Graphite One’s Alaska Puzzle: Rare Earths Surface as a Tariff Blow and a Tight Deadline Collide

Graphite One shares fall 27% as US ITC rejects graphite tariffs, but rare earth finds in Alaska and a $2B EXIM loan offer may offset the setback.

Shares in Graphite One have taken a 27% tumble since the start of the year, settling at $0.86 after the US International Trade Commission declined to impose protective tariffs on Chinese graphite imports. The stock has since managed to nudge back above its 50-day moving average, but the damage to investor sentiment is clear. The company’s market capitalisation now stands at roughly $180 million — a figure that looks modest against the scale of its ambitions in Alaska and Ohio.

The decision to withhold tariff protection removes a key pillar of Graphite One’s business case, leaving the company to lean on other advantages. Chief among them is a geological surprise buried in its Graphite Creek deposit on the Seward Peninsula, north of Nome. Independent tests have confirmed high concentrations of heavy rare earth elements — including neodymium and dysprosium, both critical for electric motors and wind turbines — directly within the planned graphite pit. Crucially, the deposit contains no toxic byproducts such as uranium or thorium, which would complicate extraction. A US national laboratory is currently evaluating extraction methods, with results expected later this year. If the tests prove favourable, Graphite One could mine these valuable metals alongside its graphite, potentially offsetting the lost tariff advantage.

Time, however, is not on the company’s side. Under the FAST-41 programme, Graphite One must secure all federal permits for Graphite Creek by the end of September 2026. Miss that deadline and the project loses its expedited review status, jeopardising the planned construction start the following year. The permitting process has already drawn hundreds of mostly negative comments during the environmental review, with several local communities opposing the mine. If regulators demand a full environmental impact statement in response to the pushback, the entire timeline could unravel.

CEO Anthony Huston has stressed that FAST-41 provides greater predictability and transparency in the regulatory process, but the clock is ticking. The deposit itself is substantial — an estimated 16 million tonnes of graphitic carbon — and the company’s integrated supply chain strategy runs from the mine to finished anode material. Commercial production for the US market is targeted for 2030.

Alongside the Alaska development, Graphite One is advancing plans for a processing facility in Ohio. That plant is expected to begin producing 48,000 tonnes of anode material annually from 2028, scaling up to 169,000 tonnes by 2031 — enough, the company says, to supply roughly two million electric vehicles per year. The US Department of Defense backed the project with a $37.5 million grant in 2023.

On the financing front, the US Export-Import Bank has issued non-binding letters of intent totalling around $2 billion to support both the Alaska mine and the Ohio plant. Formal loan applications are expected later this year. On the offtake side, Graphite One already has a non-binding agreement with luxury EV maker Lucid Group, covering the supply of natural graphite for battery anodes over an initial five-year period. The Ohio facility will start with synthetic material in 2028 before later processing concentrate from Alaska.

The graphite market itself is sending mixed signals. Spot prices for battery-grade flake graphite held steady in April, while analysts project annual growth of 12.4% for synthetic graphite through 2033. Graphite One straddles both segments, combining natural extraction with industrial processing.

Two events now dominate the near-term outlook. The national laboratory’s findings on rare earth extraction will determine whether the byproduct can compensate for the lack of tariff protection. Then comes the hard deadline in September 2026 for federal permits — a date that will decide whether the Alaska project stays on track or stalls.