Graphite One Pins Hopes on $2.1B EXIM Backing as Alaska Project Navigates Local Pushback

Export-Import Bank commits up to $2.07B to Graphite One's graphite projects; rare earths found in Alaska, but permitting hurdles and 39% stock drop loom.

The Export-Import Bank of the United States has dangled a non-binding commitment worth up to $2.07 billion over 15 years to support Graphite One’s twin ambitions in Alaska and Ohio — a signal of Washington’s appetite to break China’s stranglehold on critical minerals. The letter of interest, which the company expects to convert into formal applications in 2026, would cover roughly 70% of total project costs. Under the proposed terms, Graphite Creek would get up to $670 million and the planned Ohio downstream facility up to $1.4 billion.

The Ohio plant, designed for a modular build, is scheduled to start production in 2028 using purchased graphite feedstock before transitioning to its own Alaska concentrate from 2031 onward. At full tilt, capacity would reach 169,000 tonnes of anode material annually — enough, the company claims, to supply more than two million mid-sized electric vehicles. Graphite One is seeking to embed the facility in the FAST-41 permitting process to accelerate federal review.

Far to the north, the Graphite Creek deposit in Alaska has thrown up a strategic wild card. Metallurgical tests on garnet material from the project’s February feasibility-study drill cores have returned significant rare earth concentrations, with roughly 85% of the samples classified as magnetic or heavy rare earths. Dysprosium hit up to 63 ppm, yttrium up to 427 ppm and scandium up to 141 ppm — elements vital to high-performance magnets, EVs, wind turbines and defence systems. A partnership with a U.S. national laboratory is lined up for 2026 to evaluate extraction methods from the garnet host rock.

Yet the Alaska story comes with plain-vanilla permitting hurdles that could derail the timeline. State agencies have set a target of September 29, 2026 to conclude an accelerated environmental review, but local opposition is gathering heat. More than 300 public comments have been logged during the process; just under 17% expressed support, while over a quarter are squarely opposed. Criticism centres on dust emissions and disruption to traditional land use. Regulators are weighing a simplified environmental assessment, but any shift toward a more exhaustive review could push the mine start well beyond the 2026 deadline.

On the commercial side, Graphite One has locked in a non-binding offtake agreement with Lucid Group for natural anode active material, following an earlier multi-year deal for both natural and synthetic graphite from the EV maker. The two companies also launched a joint alliance to strengthen U.S. raw-material supply chains. Meanwhile, Alaska Native corporations Doyon and Aleut have invested a combined $5 million in the Graphite Creek development.

Despite these milestones, the equity market remains unimpressed. Shares were trading at €0.72, below the 50-day moving average of €0.78, and have sunk 38.64% since the start of the year. The stock is a long way from its 52-week high of €1.52. One headwind came in March, when the U.S. International Trade Commission ruled that Chinese graphite anode materials do not materially injure domestic industry, effectively killing the prospect of anti-dumping and countervailing duties that the Commerce Department had previously estimated at well over 150%. That decision removed a potential tariff shield for new domestic producers.

For Graphite One, the hard deadline is the last week of September 2026. If the state permitting concludes on schedule, the financing, the Ohio build-out and the rare earth by-product testing all move into a far more tangible phase. If it slips, the company’s 2031 target for feeding Alaska concentrate into its Ohio plant — and the strategic rationale behind the $2.07 billion EXIM commitment — will face uncomfortable questions.