Graphite One Doubles Mine Capacity, Yet Stock Continues Its Steady Slide

Graphite One's upgraded Alaska project feasibility study fails to lift stock as key permit and China export control deadlines loom; institutional backing of $2.07B but no offtake agreements.

A dramatically upgraded feasibility study for Graphite One’s flagship Alaska project has done little to arrest the stock’s decline. The shares closed at €0.62 on Friday, down roughly 8% on the week and 47% since the beginning of the year — more than 60% below the January high of €1.59. The relative strength index has sunk to 33.5, brushing against oversold territory, but no technical bounce has materialised.

The updated study, released on 18 June with funding from the US Department of Defense, calls for the Graphite Creek mine to produce 175,000 tonnes of concentrate annually — more than triple the 53,000-tonne target in earlier plans. The deposit’s reserves now stand at 71.2 million tonnes of rock, equivalent to 3.7 million tonnes of graphite, a sharp increase from the 2022 pre-feasibility estimate. Only 12% of the mineralised zone has been drilled. The economics are substantial: a pre-tax net present value of $6.4 billion, after-tax of $5 billion, and an expected payback period of just over seven years.

Behind the market’s indifference lie two hard deadlines, both freighted with uncertainty. The first is 29 September 2026, when the US Army Corps of Engineers is due to rule on the environmental permit for the mine. Local opponents are pushing for a full environmental impact statement, which could push the planned 2027 start of construction into doubt. The second is 27 November 2026, when China’s temporary suspension of tightened export controls on graphite and anode materials expires. The US currently imports 100% of its graphite; Graphite One’s integrated supply chain would be a direct hedge against renewed restrictions — but only if the permits arrive in time.

Ironically, China’s policy of détente is hurting the stock. As long as Beijing refrains from new export hurdles, the immediate price pressure that would drive investors toward domestic graphite projects is absent. Adding to the headwinds, the US International Trade Commission in March rejected anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese graphite imports, removing another potential price buffer for American producers.

Institutional backing remains impressive. The US Export-Import Bank has increased its financing commitments to a total of $2.07 billion — $670 million for the Alaska mine and $1.4 billion for the planned Ohio processing plant. That covers roughly 70% of estimated project costs. The Pentagon has added $42 million in grants. Yet the commercial signal investors are waiting for remains missing: no signed offtake agreement, no groundbreaking ceremony. Political support and market confidence are proving to be two different things.

The permitting race is tightening. Two other US graphite projects, in Alabama and New York, have also received FAST-41 accelerated-review status and are competing for the same first-mover advantage. Graphite One’s timeline envisages starting anode-material production in 2028 and the Alaska mine in 2030 — but that depends on a favourable decision in September 2026. Until then, the project remains on paper.

A shareholder meeting is expected later in June, with routine items such as approving equity-based compensation and continuing the stock-option plan. The real catalyst remains the Alaska permit decision. It will either clear the path to construction or force a fundamental reassessment of the entire venture. For now, the stock is caught between expanding potential and creeping uncertainty.