Gold's Stalemate Deepens as ETF Outflows Undercut Modest Bounce from One-Month Low

Spot gold flat at $4,543.96, but SPDR Gold Trust holdings dip 0.2% to 1,041.74 tonnes. Fed minutes signal possible further tightening, while lower yields and oil provide some support.

The yellow metal is treading water just shy of $4,545 an ounce, but the calm at the surface masks an unsettling undercurrent. While spot gold has clawed back more than 1% from its weakest level since March 30, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund is shedding metal — a sign that investment demand is not yet fully back on board.

The SPDR Gold Trust reported a 0.2% decline in holdings to 1,041.74 tonnes. Because physically backed ETFs hold bullion directly, their inflows and outflows offer a clean read on investment appetite. The dip is hardly a rout, but it injects a note of caution into a market that had spent April rebuilding positions. Global gold ETFs added 45 tonnes last month, lifting total holdings to 4,137 tonnes, led by Europe while North America lagged on rising yields and a firmer dollar. The latest SPDR outflow suggests the recovery will be anything but straight.

Spot gold was virtually flat in early trading Thursday at $4,543.96 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures for June delivery edged up to $4,545.50. Wednesday's settlement came in at $4,546.20, and the metal is now down 2.82% over the past seven days and 4.06% over the past 30 days. Yet it still holds a year-to-date gain of 4.71%. Technically, the price sits 3.07% below its 50-day moving average of $4,690.11, with the relative strength index at 49.8 — neither oversold nor strong enough to shake off the recent downtrend.

The drag is coming from the Federal Reserve. The April meeting minutes showed a committee leaning hawkish: a majority of participants saw further tightening as possible if inflation stays persistently above 2%. The fed funds rate corridor remains at 3.50% to 3.75%, and one member had favored a 25-basis-point cut, illustrating the split. More significantly, three members opposed the easing bias in the statement, and many would have preferred language that did not signal lower rates. For gold, which offers no yield, the message is clear: high real rates and a strong dollar are set to remain headwinds.

Offsetting some of that pressure were falling U.S. Treasury yields and a drop in oil prices. Reports of progress in U.S.-Iran talks weighed on crude, which in turn tempered inflation expectations. Lower energy costs could ease the pressure on the Fed — a potential relief valve for gold. The complex interplay between Middle East tensions, energy prices, and central bank policy means every move in yields and the dollar still dominates short-term direction.

Elsewhere in the precious metals complex, the mood was muted. Silver held steady at $75.96 an ounce, platinum slipped 0.2% to $1,947.37, and palladium gave up 0.1% to $1,368.75. The broad hesitation across the sector suggests traders are pricing in macroeconomic uncertainty rather than gold-specific catalysts.

The immediate catalyst will come later Thursday with U.S. data — weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed index, and preliminary purchasing managers' surveys. Strong prints would reinforce the hawkish narrative and pile more pressure on gold. Weaker numbers could quickly turn the latest ETF outflow into a footnote. For now, the stalemate holds, with the 50-day moving average acting as a ceiling and the one-month low as a floor — and the direction resting on which force, yields or geopolitics, wins the tug-of-war.