Gold’s Ascent: The $5,000 Threshold Comes Into Focus

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The new trading year begins with a wave of bullish institutional forecasts for gold, with major banks setting ambitious price targets that bring the $5,000 per ounce milestone firmly into view. This optimism follows an extraordinary 62 percent gain for the precious metal in 2025.

Leading financial institutions are currently escalating their projections. Goldman Sachs has initiated the year with a forecast anticipating gold will reach $4,900 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. Rival UBS presents an even more aggressive timeline, predicting the metal will hit the $5,000 mark as early as the third quarter of 2026.

In a longer-term outlook, the research firm Yardeni Research has outlined a scenario within its "Roaring 2020s" thesis where gold could potentially achieve $10,000 per ounce by 2029. These increasingly bold targets underscore a profoundly positive sentiment among institutional investors toward hard assets.

Market Demonstrates Resilience Amid Adjustment

Trading concluded for the previous year with a note of volatility. On December 31, prices dipped by 0.4 percent. This movement was triggered by the CME Group's decision to increase margin requirements for precious metal futures, a measure responding to the extreme price action witnessed in prior weeks.

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While silver subsequently experienced a sharper decline of nearly 9 percent, gold demonstrated notable relative strength, maintaining its position firmly above $4,300. Market observers interpret this resilience as an indication that the prevailing upward trend is structural in nature, suggesting it is less fueled by speculative excess compared to other metals. The current spot price stands at approximately $4,332 following this minor pullback.

China's Policy Shift Tightens Supply Dynamics

A significant fundamental development is now in effect: China has implemented stricter export controls on precious metals. The new regulations, effective immediately, essentially classify silver as a strategic resource and impose rigorous export licensing. Although the primary focus is on industrial metals, the resulting supply tightening in the Asian region is expected to have a ripple effect across the entire precious metals complex.

The market impact is already visible. In India, local gold prices climbed by 640 rupees at the start of the year. This policy shift is amplifying investor concerns over potential global supply constraints, driving increased interest in acquiring physical holdings.

Outlook: Core Drivers Remain in Place

The key catalysts behind 2025's record performance—sustained central bank purchasing, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and currency devaluation concerns—are projected to continue dominating the market narrative in 2026. With heavyweight institutions like UBS charting a course toward $5,000, the directional bias for the first half of the year appears well-defined. The recent minor setback prompted by the CME's margin adjustment is widely viewed as a technical correction within a firmly intact bullish trend.