Gold's $4,570: Goldman Lifts Central Bank Forecast, Nepal Doubles Import Duty in a Week of Mixed Signals

Gold steadies near $4,570 as record central bank purchases and a Nepal duty hike offset geopolitical shifts, with $4,500 as key support.

Gold held steady near $4,569.90 an ounce on Friday after a 1.57% single-day gain, pushing its year-to-date advance to 5.25%. While the rally has cooled from its earlier pace — the relative strength index sits at a neutral 49.8, 16% below the all-time high — the market is absorbing two powerful and opposing forces: a structural uplift in central bank buying and an abrupt tariff shock in South Asia.

Goldman Sachs revised its models after central banks, particularly in emerging markets, accelerated purchases faster than anticipated. The investment bank now expects average monthly acquisitions of 60 tonnes through the end of 2026, up from a previous estimate of 50 tonnes. Poland, India and Turkey continue to lead the charge, selling down dollar holdings and replacing them with what they regard as a politically neutral reserve asset. The shift is not new, but its intensity has surprised even bullish forecasters.

In Nepal, the government doubled gold import duties from 10% to 20%, sending the domestic price soaring by 20,500 rupees per tola to a record 311,100 rupees on Sunday. The move illustrates how quickly state intervention can jolt physical gold markets, even when global bullion barely moves. Separately, Turkey is planning to channel thousands of tonnes of privately held gold into the official financial system, though similar initiatives in the past have delivered mixed results.

Geopolitical developments added their own texture. Reports of progress in US-Iran diplomatic talks — Vice President JD Vance signaled momentum, though final presidential approval is still pending — weighed on oil prices and, by extension, inflation expectations. Lower crude prices reduce the likelihood of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, which strengthens the case for non-yielding assets like gold. Yet the underlying fragility of the Middle East remains: any escalation could reverse the flows in an instant.

Chartists have identified $4,488 as the next support level, while resistance lies in the zone around $4,786. The 52-week high of $5,450 is still roughly 16% above current levels, and traders note that gold briefly pushed through the $5,000 mark earlier this year before retreating. The $4,500 area is now the pivotal line — hold it, and the path to fresh highs reopens; lose it, and the correction may deepen.

In the week ahead, market participants are watching two variables: diplomatic signals from the Middle East and fresh data on physical gold flows into emerging markets. Both will help determine whether gold can build on its recent gains or whether the current consolidation extends. With central banks buying at record clip and a Himalayan tariff shock adding a new wild card, the precious metal is navigating one of its most complex setups in months.