GEO Group Shares Drift Lower as Analysts Reassess After Mixed November Results

Analyst sentiment toward GEO Group cooled noticeably over the weekend, with several financial houses trimming their ratings or lowering price targets, signaling a shift in expectations for the prison operator.

The pullback follows GEO Group’s November quarterly results, which painted a mixed picture. The company surpassed earnings expectations and disclosed more than 460 million US dollars in newly signed contract revenue—the largest uptick in contract revenue in the company’s history. However, guidance for the current quarter and for full-year 2025 came in softer than what analysts had anticipated. The takeaway appears to be growing concern that these robust contract wins may not translate quickly into a clearer improvement in overall financial results.

Wall Street’s reaction was mixed. While some firms downgraded from Buy to Hold, Zacks Research rated the stock as Strong Sell. Jones Trading reduced its price target, and Weiss Ratings maintained a Hold rating. Taken together, consensus appears to have shifted toward a cautious Hold with modestly lower targets, a trend reflected in the stock’s recent trading pressure.

Looking ahead, the next set of quarterly results will reveal whether GEO Group can turn its sizeable contract wins into sustainable growth and alleviate the skepticism seen in the current analyst outlook.