General Mills’ 7.4% Dividend Yield Offers Little Comfort as Stock Tanks Ahead of Q4 Report

General Mills (GIS) stock has fallen 31% in 90 days, pushing dividend yield to 7.4% ahead of Q4 earnings. Management promises sequential improvement but analysts remain cautious.

The stark arithmetic facing General Mills investors is an uncomfortable one: a stock that has shed nearly a third of its value in three months, yet offers a dividend yield that income hunters would normally kill for. At Friday’s close of $32.99, the shares are dangerously close to the 52-week low of $32.91 touched on May 16, when the stock oscillated between that mark and $33.69. Over the past 90 trading days the Minneapolis-based food giant has lost 31.46%, a decline that has pushed the annualized dividend yield to roughly 7.4% — a level that typically signals deep distress in the underlying business.

That distress will be put to the test on July 1, when General Mills reports fiscal fourth-quarter results before the opening bell. Management has pledged sequential improvement across three key metrics: organic revenue, adjusted operating profit, and adjusted earnings per share. Part of the recovery is expected to come from trade inventory restocking after destocking weighed on the prior quarter, and from a favorable base effect on trade spending. The consensus among analysts calls for adjusted EPS of $0.82, a notable bounce from the $0.64 posted in Q3, which itself missed the $0.73 forecast.

Yet the guidance for the full fiscal year paints a bleaker picture. Organic revenue is expected to decline 1.5% to 2%, while adjusted operating profit and adjusted EPS are each forecast to fall 16% to 20% on a currency-neutral basis. Operating cash flow for the first nine months slid to $1.6 billion, driven primarily by lower net income. With the Q4 uptick framed as a correction rather than organic strength, the market is reserving judgment.

Wall Street’s skepticism is evident in recent analyst moves. Barclays lowered its price target from $41 to $36 while maintaining a hold rating. Piper Sandler, in contrast, rates the stock as a buy with a $41 target. The average analyst target nonetheless stands at a little over $42, implying substantial upside from current levels — but the majority of analysts still advise reducing positions. That caution reflects a broader uncertainty about whether the promised Q4 improvement can be sustained into the next fiscal year, which management has already described as a recovery year.

To shore up execution, General Mills promoted Dana McNabb to chief operating officer, effective June 1. She takes control of all operating segments and central functions — international, foodservice, digital, innovation, strategy, and supply chain. The role had been vacant since Jeff Harmening, now CEO, previously held it before ascending to the top job. The appointment consolidates operational oversight just as the company navigates a portfolio overhaul. General Mills has agreed to sell its Brazilian business, including brands Yoki and Kitano, to 3corações in a deal expected to close by the end of 2026. That unit generated roughly $350 million in annual revenue, and its exit is meant to sharpen focus on higher-margin platforms such as premium ice cream, Mexican food, bars, and pet food. Innovation remains a parallel lever: new products are growing around 25% in North American retail, with Cheerios Protein on track to hit $100 million in revenue by year-end and Ghost Protein Bars rolling out nationally.

For income-oriented investors, the dividend remains the anchor. The quarterly payout of $0.61 per share, most recently paid in early May, consumes about 59.5% of earnings — a moderate ratio that keeps the distribution well covered even as profits shrink. The 126-year streak of uninterrupted dividends adds a layer of credibility, but the immediate technical test sits at $32.91. If the stock breaks below that year-to-date low, further selling pressure could accelerate. If the support holds, the high yield may provide a floor for a rebound, provided the July 1 report delivers the substance that rhetoric alone has so far failed to provide.