Gartner Stock: Is Artificial Intelligence Fueling a Resurgence?

Gartner US3666511072

Shares of the research and advisory firm Gartner are exhibiting notable momentum, drawing investor interest through its prominent position within the expanding artificial intelligence landscape and a series of positive developments from its own analysis. The critical question remains whether this activity can translate into a durable recovery, a prospect that will hinge on forthcoming business metrics and sustained client demand for its services.

The recent upward movement finds support in the company's latest financial results. For the third quarter of 2025, Gartner reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.76, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.41. Revenue showed moderate growth, increasing by 2.7% to $1.5 billion. A key indicator, the total contract value, rose 3.0% to $5.0 billion.

A breakdown of segment performance reveals mixed results:
* Insights Segment: Revenue here grew 5.1% to $1.3 billion, with a contribution margin of 76.7%.
* Global Business Sales: This division saw contract value growth of 7.1%, reaching $1.2 billion.
* Conferences and Consulting: These areas experienced declines of 1.6% and 3.2%, respectively.

Institutional activity presents a divided picture. While Thrivent significantly reduced its stake, a notable vote of confidence came from a director's purchase on December 10, involving 43,300 shares at an average price of $229.57. The current analyst consensus predominantly recommends a "Hold" rating, with an average price target of $308.11. RBC Capital Markets has set a target of $250, and Morgan Stanley has also undertaken a reassessment. The stock is currently trading at €215.50, reflecting a year-to-date decline of approximately 54.26%.

The AI Catalyst

A primary driver behind the renewed attention is Gartner's strategic positioning in the AI sector. On December 18, 2025, the firm published a significant analysis identifying leading "Companies to Beat" across nearly 30 competitions within five AI categories. These ranged from data infrastructure and agentic models to AI security and industry-specific solutions. This move reinforces Gartner's role as a critical advisory resource for corporations navigating their AI strategy development.

Management has further emphasized that the direct disruption of its core business by AI has so far been "extremely small." In fact, client consultations have increased precisely due to the complexities surrounding AI adoption. Internally, Gartner is leveraging AI tools to accelerate analyst work and reduce publication timelines. This dual approach—offering external advisory expertise while boosting internal efficiency—appears to be positively shifting investor sentiment.

Path Forward and Key Indicators

Is this the beginning of a sustained turnaround? The possibility exists, but it is not yet assured. The company's future trajectory will depend heavily on its ability to solidify its position as an indispensable advisor on AI matters while maintaining robust margins in its core Insights business. A positive scenario requires continued client investment in AI initiatives and further growth in contract values.

Conversely, should demand for its subscription-based research services fall short of expectations, the stock could face renewed pressure. Concrete signals for a lasting recovery would include sustained expansion of total contract values, stable contribution margins in the Insights segment, and additional institutional buying interest. Potential warning signs would be prolonged revenue weakness in the Consulting and Conferences divisions or quarterly results that disappoint against the company's current guidance.