Fujikura's Capacity Conundrum: When Supply Finally Catches Up with AI Demand

Japanese fiber-optic maker Fujikura sees 22% monthly drop as Broadcom selloff and decade-long US capacity ramp test investor patience on AI demand monetization.

The Japanese fiber-optic cable maker Fujikura is caught in a pincer movement — a broader tech selloff sparked by Broadcom's disappointing outlook on one side, and the extended timeline for its own US production on the other. Investors are repricing the stock as they grapple with a gap that could stretch half a decade: robust structural AI demand versus a capacity ramp that won't deliver meaningful revenue until well into the next decade.

Tech rout deepens as patience wears thin

On Thursday, Fujikura shares shed roughly 3% in European trading to €25.47, adding to a steep 30-day slide of almost 22%. With annualized volatility topping 120%, the relative strength index sits at 36 — just above oversold territory. The selloff was part of a broader retreat across Tokyo-listed AI infrastructure plays: the Nikkei 225 fell 1.36% and the Topix 1.11%, with SoftBank Group, Kioxia Holdings, Murata Manufacturing, Taiyo Yuden and Furukawa Electric all among the worst performers.

The trigger was Broadcom's cautious guidance, which cast a shadow over the entire AI hardware supply chain — and Fujikura, whose cables serve hyperscale data centers and telecom networks, is deeply exposed to that narrative. The market is now questioning not the eventual demand, but the timing.

A ten-year wait for US capacity

Fujikura recently laid out a detailed roadmap for its planned US fiber-optic factory. CEO Naoki Okada has allocated up to ¥260 billion to the project, but production is not expected before 2030, with full capacity only by the fiscal year ending March 2035. Before a site is even chosen, the company needs to secure hydrogen supply, verify energy availability and navigate government subsidy conditions — all steps that signal significant execution risk.

Meanwhile, a new ¥40 billion plant at the Sakura Works site in Japan is scheduled to begin operations in December 2030. Together, the two expansion projects are part of a total investment program of up to ¥300 billion, aimed at quadrupling capacity compared with the fiscal year 2022 level. Fujikura has also set up a US subsidiary, Fujikura Optical Cable Systems LLC in Delaware, planned for June 2026, to run the American operation.

Demand is real, profits are later

The long-dated timeline is precisely what has unsettled the market. Management has been clear: these investments will have only a minimal impact on consolidated results through March 2027. For the fiscal year ending March 2026, Fujikura still forecasts revenue of ¥1.243 trillion — up 5.1% — and operating profit of ¥211 billion, an 11.8% gain. The demand from North American hyperscalers for fiber cables and multi-fiber connectors remains intact. What changed is the market's perception of how long it will take to monetise that demand.

The stock has now fallen for six consecutive sessions in Tokyo. At the latest close, it traded at ¥4,498, down ¥179 on the day. In Europe, the equivalent closed at €26.30, down roughly a fifth over the past month. The RSI at 37 signals the stock is nearing oversold territory, yet no near-term catalyst appears on the horizon.

Milestones to watch

Investors are left waiting on a series of concrete milestones: the formal establishment of the Delaware subsidiary in June 2026, the final site decision for the US factory, and clarity on energy and hydrogen supply arrangements. Until those boxes are checked, the stock trades on two contradictory levels simultaneously — one grounded in strong secular demand, the other in a demanding execution schedule that won't yield results for years.