From Lab to Fab: ASML’s High-NA EUV Machines Cross the Threshold as Orders Swell and Customers Place Their Bets

ASML's High-NA EUV lithography enters commercial phase; stock hits record high as sold-out orders and record revenue highlight supply-demand gap.

The lithography race is entering a new phase, and ASML is sitting at the center of it. What began as a testing exercise for the Dutch company’s next-generation High-NA EUV systems is now rapidly shifting toward commercial production. The machines — each costing around $329 million — are moving out of development labs and into chip factories, a transition that has propelled ASML’s stock to a fresh 52-week high of €1,403.40 on Friday.

Chief executive Christophe Fouquet confirmed that the test phase for the new tools is nearly complete, with the first chips produced using High-NA EUV technology expected to be unveiled in the coming weeks. The systems are designed to etch circuit patterns below the 2-nanometer threshold, making them indispensable for the next wave of logic and memory chips. Intel and SK Hynix are already lined up as first commercial adopters, while TSMC remains cautious, balking at the steep upfront cost.

A supply chain stretched thin

The market is rewarding ASML not just for its technological lead, but for the structural imbalance between supply and demand. Fouquet has been explicit: the company’s ability to churn out critical lithography tools is persistently outrun by orders from mega AI chip plants and satellite network projects. The EUV order book is completely sold out. That constraint, far from being a red flag, underpins expectations of sustained high utilization.

That bullish backdrop is reflected in the numbers. ASML’s revenue for 2025 hit a record €32.7 billion, generating a profit of €9.7 billion. Looking ahead, the company forecasts net sales between €36 billion and €40 billion in 2026, with gross margins in the 51% to 53% range. A multi-billion euro share buyback program that began in early 2026 is also running in the background.

Different strokes for different chip giants

Not every customer is rushing in. TSMC has publicly signaled that the cost of High-NA EUV is too steep for immediate mass production, even as first components — including a 25-ton module — have been shipped to Belgium’s Imec research center. Intel and SK Hynix, by contrast, are accelerating their timelines, positioning to leapfrog competitors once the machines are fully ramped. Samsung, meanwhile, is trying to woo 2-nanometer foundry clients by bundling memory and manufacturing services, though its GAA process yield is still estimated at only around 50%.

The divergence extends beyond individual strategies. Geopolitics is also reshuffling alliances. The Dutch ambassador to South Korea, Peter van der Vliet, recently announced a deeper partnership between the two countries in photonics and semiconductor research, aiming to lock in a strategic position in the global chip supply chain — even as India launches its own semiconductor mission.

Internal tightening to fund the future

Ironically, ASML is trimming its own sails even as it rides a wave of demand. The company plans to cut roughly 1,700 jobs, mostly in the Netherlands, to streamline operations. The savings are being redirected toward commercializing High-NA technology. The move underscores a focus on efficiency at a time when the broader industry remains unsettled.

At TSMC, rumblings about bonus cuts have employees discussing possible strikes, despite a 58% profit surge in the first quarter of 2026. And in the memory space, Micron can barely keep up — the company is able to fulfill less than two-thirds of HBM demand, which only reinforces the need for advanced lithography capacity.

Technical signals and watchpoints

The stock’s relentless climb has left some technical indicators flashing caution. The relative strength index sits near 32 — a level normally associated with oversold conditions, yet here it appears alongside a fresh price high. That anomaly suggests the rally has been unusually sharp and could be vulnerable to a consolidation. ASML has gained 8.4% in the past week alone and is up 42% year to date, while its 12-month return stands at 113.8%.

Another overhang is the China export control regime. Chinese customers accounted for about 19% of system sales recently, and further restrictions could trim that share. Management is expected to address both the regulatory outlook and specific delivery timelines for High-NA systems at an investor conference in Hong Kong late next month.

The big question hanging over the entire narrative — whether the enormous investment in High-NA EUV will ultimately pay off through efficiency gains below the 2nm node — is one that only volume production in the coming months can answer.