Frankfurt’s Benchmark Stages a Comeback as Oil Volatility and Earnings Surprises Collide

German index gains 1.4% as crude spikes then crashes; Adidas leads earnings winners, Deutsche Bank drops despite profit beat.

The DAX closed Thursday at 24,292 points, gaining 1.4 percent, after a day of dramatic swings driven by oil price gyrations and a flood of corporate earnings. The index had slipped below the psychologically important 24,000 mark on Wednesday but reclaimed it following the European Central Bank’s decision to hold rates steady.

Crude oil stole the headlines. Brent crude spiked above $126 a barrel in early trading on reports of potential US strikes against Iran, only to crash back below $116 by the afternoon. That retreat, combined with a positive start on Wall Street, lifted sentiment in Frankfurt. “The mood suddenly brightened when New York opened,” said Andreas Lipkow of CMC Markets, pointing also to unexpected strength in the Japanese yen that fueled speculation about Bank of Japan intervention.

Earnings Season Delivers Winners and Losers

The reporting week peaked on Wednesday when six DAX-listed companies opened their books. Adidas provided the strongest catalyst, with the sportswear group posting a 7 percent revenue increase and a 15.5 percent operating profit improvement despite currency headwinds and tariffs. The stock surged 8.4 percent. Scout24 followed with a 6.7 percent gain after Metzler analysts praised its solid quarterly results and accelerated share buyback program.

The most striking paradox came from Deutsche Bank. Net profit jumped to €1.9 billion, beating analyst expectations of €1.8 billion, while revenues reached €8.7 billion. Yet the shares dropped 1.8 percent. Goldman Sachs maintained its “Neutral” rating with a €34.50 price target, reflecting the market’s caution. The bank had set aside €519 million for potential loan losses, a sharp increase in risk provisioning that spooked investors.

BASF reported declining sales and weaker operating earnings but reaffirmed its full-year guidance, gaining 1.3 percent. Volkswagen’s operating margin slipped to 3.3 percent from 3.7 percent a year earlier, with operating profit falling more than 14 percent. Still, the preferred shares added 1.5 percent. Porsche disappointed, posting a 22 percent drop in operating profit.

Central Banks Hold Fire, Geopolitics Simmer

Both the Federal Reserve and the ECB left their key interest rates unchanged this week. The ECB is expected to wait and assess the economic fallout from the Iran conflict before making any further moves. German consumer prices rose 2.9 percent in April, adding to the cautious backdrop.

Technically, the 24,000 level remains the first key support. The DAX now trades about 1.8 percent above its 50-day moving average, keeping it in a stable zone roughly 4.4 percent below its all-time high of 25,420 points. Chart watchers are also eyeing the 200-day moving average at 24,117 points, a break below which would signal a clear weakening trend.

Looking Ahead to May

With Xetra closed Friday for the May Day holiday, investors have time to digest Thursday’s after-hours results from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft. Their reception will set the tone for the first trading week of May, a historically difficult month for equities. The “Sell in May” pattern could weigh on prices, and if earnings expectations continue to slide, the year’s low of 22,300 points may come into focus. On a year-to-date basis, the DAX is down roughly 1 percent.