For Graphite One, September 29 Is the Day That Could Make or Break a 42% Slide

U.S. graphite supply chain company faces widening gap between geopolitical importance and investor indifference, with China export control expiration and Alaskan permitting decision in 2026.

The Pentagon’s seal of approval might guarantee national security interest, but it does nothing to prop up a falling share price. Graphite One has watched its equity tumble more than 42% since the start of 2026, even as Washington piles on endorsements for domestic battery supply chains. The widening gap between geopolitical importance and investor indifference now defines the company’s story – and two hard deadlines will decide whether that gap narrows or blows open.

A Report and a Clock

On 4 June 2026, the U.S. Department of Defense released a report calling for targeted production tax credits, a government co-investment fund, and technology licensing agreements with allies to wrest control from Asian suppliers, which currently command 92% of the global battery manufacturing equipment market. Graphite One CEO Anthony Huston welcomed the document, praising the extension of tariff exemptions on imported battery-making machinery through at least November 2026. “This recognizes the reality we face while domestic capacity ramps up,” he said.

But Washington’s policy push runs up against a concrete timeline. China’s export controls on battery and anode materials are suspended only until 10 November 2026, with a separate restriction on graphite exports to the U.S. expiring on 27 November. Beijing controls more than 95% of global graphite anode processing. Betting on a permanent trade pause carries serious risk – and that risk is exactly what is driving Graphite One to accelerate domestic output.

Ohio’s 10,000-Tonne Target

The company has now locked in the location for its planned processing facility: Conneaut in Ashtabula County, roughly 105 kilometres northeast of Cleveland. The site offers direct access to the Lake Erie shipping corridor and rail connections. Phase one aims for an annual capacity of 10,000 tonnes of battery-grade material, with completion pencilled in for the fourth quarter of 2027 and operations set to start in 2028. During the initial phase, Graphite One will feed the plant with purchased graphite as raw material.

That factory depends on the very imported high-temperature equipment the tariff exemptions cover – another reason Huston pushed for an extension. Without those machines, the Ohio timeline slips.

Alaska’s Permitting Gamble

The flagship Graphite Creek project in Alaska, located about 60 kilometres north of Nome, is barrelling toward a make-or-break regulatory decision. It sits on the federal FAST-41 permitting track, designed to speed up environmental reviews. The deadline for completing those reviews: 29 September 2026.

That date is now the single most important catalyst for the stock. If Graphite One receives the go-ahead, construction can begin in 2027. If the schedule blows up, the entire strategy of building a purely American graphite supply chain is thrown into uncertainty.

But the permitting path is not clear of obstacles. Local tribal groups have pushed back hard. Representatives from Brevig Mission and Teller excluded Graphite One management from meetings, and three institutions in Brevig Mission passed a joint resolution opposing the mine, citing risks to local culture and food sources. Critics have filed hundreds of negative comments, worried about impacts on water resources.

Financial Reality Check

The development-stage nature of the company shows in the numbers. For the first quarter of 2026, the net loss widened to $3.03 million from $1.56 million a year earlier, reflecting higher spending on permitting, engineering and site preparation.

The stock closed on Friday at €0.68 – a daily gain of 2.10%, but a year-to-date loss of more than 42%. That puts it 19% below the 200-day moving average of €0.84 and under the 50-day average of €0.72. The 52-week high of €1.59, touched in January 2026, now sits more than 57% above the current price.

A Funding Backstop – and a Gap

On the financing front, Graphite One has a few pieces in place. The U.S. Export-Import Bank has issued amended letters of interest totalling $2.07 billion for the American graphite supply chain strategy. The Pentagon has already contributed $42 million. The company also completed a public offering of C$35 million. Management is now in discussions with North American investment banks for the remaining capital.

But the market is waiting for commercial milestones, not just financial backstops. Potential customers are testing material samples, yet no binding offtake agreements have been signed. Until those materialise, the stock is left to swing on political headlines and permitting updates.

Rare-Earth Bonus

Graphite Creek may yield more than graphite. Independent tests confirmed elevated concentrations of magnetic and heavy rare-earth elements in the project’s garnet material. Fully 85% of the identified rare earths belong to the magnetic or heavy categories – including dysprosium, yttrium and scandium. Further testing is planned for 2026 in partnership with a U.S. national laboratory.

Waiting on Autumn

For now, the equity trades on binary risk. The federal permitting decision due at the end of September will either unlock the Alaska mine or force a re-evaluation of the entire project. Until then, Graphite One sits between the strongest political tailwind a critical-minerals company could ask for and the absence of the commercial contracts that actually boost a share price.