Fiserv's Small Business Index Reveals Shifting Consumer Spending Patterns

Fiserv's February Small Business Index shows sales up 1.2% year-over-year, driven by higher spending per transaction despite a drop in customer visits. Sector performance diverges.

The latest data from Fiserv's Small Business Index for February paints a nuanced picture of the U.S. consumer landscape. While overall sales saw a modest year-over-year increase, this growth was not driven by higher customer traffic. Instead, it stemmed from consumers spending more per transaction, raising questions about the underlying strength of demand.

Higher Spending Offsets Fewer Transactions

Fiserv reported its seasonally adjusted Small Business Index held steady at 143 for the month. Compared to the same period last year, sales edged up by 1.2%. This marginal gain occurred despite a 0.8% decline in the total number of transactions, a metric often referred to as foot traffic.

The key driver was a larger average purchase size. The value of the average "ticket" rose by 2.0% year-over-year and also increased by 0.3% from January. The takeaway is clear: businesses recorded fewer individual sales, but customers spent more money during each visit. Fiserv noted that seasonal patterns and weather events influenced spending behavior, causing demand to vary across different industry sectors.

Sector Performance Shows a Divergence

The report highlighted significant variation in performance across different segments of the economy. Service-oriented industries generally showed strength, led by Professional Services, which posted a robust 4.2% annual sales increase. Repair and Maintenance services also grew, up 1.5%, alongside Health and Personal Care Retailers, which saw a 3.0% gain.

Conversely, the hospitality sector displayed weakness. Sales at Food Services and Drinking Places were flat compared to the previous year, while visitor frequency dropped by 2.1%. The broader retail sector managed a slight overall increase of 0.6%.

Corporate Developments and Recent Financials

The release of this economic data coincides with a period of mixed corporate signals for Fiserv. Recent regulatory filings indicate that Strive Asset Management LLC has established a new position in the company. Furthermore, reports in early March suggested that activist investor Jana Partners is applying pressure regarding strategic portfolio focus and operational execution. In a separate development, Fiserv recently finalized a new partnership agreement with Canada's Peoples Group.

On the financial front, Fiserv's most recent quarterly report in February exceeded market expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.99 on revenue of $4.90 billion, surpassing consensus estimates. Looking further ahead, Fiserv's internal earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the full year 2026 stands in the range of $8.00 to $8.30.