Fidelity’s $18 Million Bet on Almonty Highlights Tungsten’s Twin Demand Drivers

Tungsten prices soar 264% in 2024, boosting Almonty's revenue to $25.4M. Fidelity and Van Eck invest as Chinese export curbs tighten supply for defense and semiconductors.

The rally in tungsten prices is rewriting the financial scripts for producers, and Almonty Industries is at the center of the story. As ammonium paratungstate (APT) surged from $862.50 per metric tonne unit at the start of the year to $3,140 by May 8, the company’s operating results have snapped into sharp focus. First-quarter mine revenue hit $13.0 million in Canadian dollars, up from $0.8 million a year earlier, while gross revenue soared 221% to $25.4 million. The price lever has more than offset lower output volumes at its Portuguese mine, Panasqueira.

That operational turnaround is now drawing big institutional names. Fidelity recently acquired just over 18 million shares, lifting its stake to 6.5% of Almonty. The asset manager joins Van Eck Associates among the company’s top holders, underscoring the growing interest in a miner that sits at the intersection of two structural demand stories: defense and semiconductors.

Chinese export restrictions on tungsten are no longer a concern solely for the arms industry. Japanese producers have warned chipmakers such as Samsung of potential supply tightness for tungsten hexafluoride, a critical precursor in semiconductor manufacturing. Almonty has strengthened its strategic position with a US tariff exemption granted in April, long-term offtake agreements for missiles and drones, and now a foothold in the technology supply chain.

Analysts Lift Forecasts on Shifting Fundamentals

Diamond Equity Research has raised its earnings per share estimate for the current year to $0.72, and analyst H. Diamond now sees 2027 EPS at $1.68. A separate note from the same firm had previously penciled in $1.23 for 2027, reflecting the speed at which the price environment has changed. The broader analyst community also sees upside: Oppenheimer has a $19.00 price target, B. Riley sits at $23.00, and DA Davidson is the most bullish at $25.00, all well above recent trading levels.

Almonty’s balance sheet provides ample runway for expansion. As of March 31, the company held $259.9 million in cash and $169.5 million in working capital. That buffer is being deployed toward the ramp-up of the Sangdong mine in South Korea, where phase two expansion is targeted for completion in 2027. At full capacity, Sangdong is expected to supply more than 80% of the world’s tungsten production outside China.

Stock Correction Masks Underlying Progress

Despite the earnings breakthrough, the stock has given back ground. The shares traded at C$24.10 at the time of the primary report, after earlier closing at C$25.12 on Thursday. The one-month decline stands at 12.90%, trimming the year-to-date gain to just over 100%. The pullback followed the release of the strong quarterly numbers, as investors booked profits after a torrid rally.

CEO Lewis Black has kept a dual focus on operations and industry dynamics. This week he presented “No Team, No Tungsten, No Time: The Human Capital Crisis in Mining,” linking labor shortages to the realignment of critical-material supply chains. The human factor is just one more variable in a venture where execution is everything.

A discounted cash flow valuation suggests the stock trades 42.3% below a fair value of C$43.69. The gap between the current price and that intrinsic estimate highlights the weight of expectation already built into the name. If Sangdong ramps on schedule and APT prices stay elevated, the upward adjustments to earnings forecasts may still have room to run. Any stumble on either front, however, could trigger a sharp reassessment in a stock that is already pricing in much of the good news.

The annual general meeting on June 9 will put the Sangdong timeline front and center. With Fidelity now on the shareholder register and the semiconductor industry looking over tungsten’s shoulder, the stakes for Almonty have never been higher.