Eutelsat’s Technical Dissonance: Record High Meets Overbought Signal as LEO Revenue Surges 65%

Eutelsat shares hit 52-week high at €4.57 as LEO revenue jumps 65%, but RSI at 84 warns of overbought conditions and potential consolidation.

The Paris-listed satellite operator’s shares have staged a remarkable rally, but conflicting technical readings are giving investors pause. After closing at a new 52-week high of €4.57 on Thursday — a 6.46% daily gain that pushed the year-to-date advance to 155% — the Relative Strength Index hit 84 points, deep in overbought territory. That followed a period just days earlier when the same indicator had fallen to 21, signaling an oversold condition even as the stock climbed.

The extreme volatility, with an annualized 30-day reading of 89%, reflects the tension between Eutelsat’s transforming business and a video segment that continues to shrink. In the third quarter of the 2025/26 financial year, total revenue came in at €293 million, an organic increase of 3.1% that masked a divergent performance beneath the surface.

Satellite connectivity — especially the low-earth-orbit (LEO) constellation — is the engine of the turnaround. LEO revenue jumped 65% organically to €62.2 million in the quarter, while government services rose 11.8% and mobile connectivity surged 27%, boosted by LEO-based solutions in Ukraine. Over the first nine months of the fiscal year, LEO revenue grew at an annualised pace of 50%, and the company recently signed a five-year capacity contract with Anuvu covering the Eutelsat 10B satellite.

The legacy video business, however, continues to drag. Third-quarter video revenue fell to €128 million, an organic decline of 13.3%, as sanctions against Russian broadcasters and expiring capacity contracts accelerate the slide. Management has reaffirmed its guidance: LEO revenue should grow 50% in the current fiscal year, and net debt is expected to end the period at 2.7 times adjusted EBITDA. Over the medium term, the company targets operating revenue of €1.5 billion to €1.7 billion by fiscal 2028/29, with an EBITDA margin of at least 65%.

On the technical side, the stock broke through resistance at €4.28 on Thursday, extending its weekly gain to roughly 21% and its three-month advance to 93%. The share price now sits 72% above its 200-day moving average of €2.65, a stretched position that has historically preceded consolidation. In the U.S. over-the-counter market, Eutelsat shares (ticker EUTLF) hit a high of $4.99 before closing at $4.90 on thin volume of 7,480 shares.

The short side has all but evaporated. During the first half of May, the number of Eutelsat shares held short collapsed by 85.5%, from 688 to just 100, according to data as of May 15. That sharp decline suggests that earlier bearish bets were squeezed, adding fuel to the rally.

The next major catalyst arrives on August 7, 2026, when Eutelsat reports full-year results for 2025/26. Investors will then see whether LEO growth can offset video erosion on a sustained basis — and whether the technical overheating signals a necessary pause or the start of a deeper correction.