Eutelsat's Post-Lockup Plunge Deepens Despite €350M Government Windfall and 65% LEO Surge

Eutelsat shares fall sharply after lock-up expiry, despite record LEO revenue, a €350M French defense deal, and a 65% surge in satellite services. Analysts warn of further downside.

The stock market has delivered a brutal verdict on Eutelsat, with the French satellite operator's shares shedding more than a fifth of their value in the past week alone. The sell-off, which has driven the equity to €2.34, comes despite a flurry of positive operational news ranging from a major French defence contract to surging low-earth orbit (LEO) revenue.

The immediate catalyst for the rout was the expiry of a 190-day lock-up period on 17 June. That date freed major shareholders — including the French state, the UK government and Bharti Space — to offload their stakes at will. The overhang has weighed heavily on sentiment, pushing the stock to within striking distance of its year-low of €1.59 and wiping out nearly half of the value it had amassed since hitting a 2024 peak of €4.62 in May.

That price action stands in stark contrast to a series of commercial wins that would ordinarily buoy any stock. Eutelsat recently signed a multi-year agreement with Angola's Mercury, a subsidiary of the state-owned Sonangol group, to provide LEO satellite services to corporate and public-sector clients. The deal extends the company's monopoly as the only licensed LEO operator in the African country.

Even more lucrative is the eight-year contract with the French defence procurement agency, variously referred to as IRIS² and CENTAURE, that is worth up to €350 million. The agreement guarantees a firm €138 million over the first four years and commits Eutelsat to providing secure satellite capacity for critical government and military communications.

The accelerating pivot to LEO satellites is the strategic backbone of Eutelsat's turnaround. Revenue from that segment surged 65% in the latest reported period, helping to offset the steady decline in the legacy broadcast business. The company has placed a €4.3 billion (or "milliardenschwere") bond early this year to fund the network expansion, and it has ordered 440 new satellites from Airbus, with deliveries beginning at the end of 2026. The next generation of spacecraft, due to launch next year, will integrate the 5G standard.

Yet the transformation comes at a cost. Management expects overall revenue for the current fiscal year to remain stable, but the operating margin is forecast to slip slightly as heavy investment drags on profitability. The long-term target envisages operational revenue of at least €1.5 billion by the end of the decade, with a margin above 65% — a goal that appears distant while the share price languishes well below its key moving averages.

Analysts warn that if the selling pressure from large shareholders persists, the stock could quickly test the €1.59 low reached earlier this year. For now, Eutelsat remains a high-volatility turnaround play, caught between promising contract wins and the harsh mechanics of the equity market.