Eutelsat’s Double Bet: SpaceX IPO Froth Meets a €2.2 Billion Satellite Overhaul

Eutelsat shares doubled YTD on SpaceX IPO proxy hype and a €2.2B satellite contract, but analysts warn of 36% downside as direct SpaceX access looms.

The French satellite operator has become an unlikely beneficiary of Elon Musk’s looming IPO. Eutelsat shares closed at €3.74 on Friday, capping a week that saw them surge 31% as investors piled into a proxy play on the planned SpaceX listing. Year?to?date the stock has more than doubled, gaining roughly 109%. Yet the rally is built on two very different pillars: the hype surrounding the world’s largest ever IPO and a concrete €2.2 billion deal to replace the company’s own ageing Low?Earth?Orbit fleet.

SpaceX filed its prospectus with the SEC earlier this month, targeting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. The company hopes to raise $75 billion in what would be the largest IPO in history, with trading due to start on June 12 and a roadshow kicking off around June 4. For Eutelsat, one of only two operators with a fully functioning LEO constellation – the other being Starlink – the announcement acted as a powerful catalyst. The stock briefly surged 41% intra?week before paring gains.

But the proxy trade carries risk. Once investors can buy SpaceX directly, the demand for Eutelsat as a stand?in could evaporate quickly. Analysts already see a yawning gap between the market price and their estimates. The consensus price target stands at €2.40, roughly 36% below Friday’s close. BNP Paribas recently lifted its target from €2.10 to €2.70 but kept a “Neutral” rating. ODDO?BHF analyst Stéphane Beyazian noted that “the SpaceX valuation lies far above what European satellite companies are currently trusted with,” adding that some investors hope for a sector?wide re?rating.

While the SpaceX frenzy has dominated headlines, Eutelsat has been quietly strengthening its own orbital hand. The company signed a follow?up contract with Airbus for 340 new OneWeb satellites, valued at around €2.2 billion. These units, equipped with improved digital channel switches, will replace older satellites launched in 2019 and 2020. Production is set to begin in 2026 at Airbus’s Toulouse facility, with initial launches expected as early as the end of this year. Launch slots for part of the new fleet have already been secured with MaiaSpace for the 2027?2029 window.

The constellation refresh is not happening in a vacuum. Eutelsat is a key player in the European Commission’s IRIS² project, a 290?satellite network designed to guarantee secure European communications. The consortium SpaceRISE – which also includes SES and Hispasat – holds a 12?year concession agreement. The new OneWeb satellites are expected to support that initiative and strengthen Eutelsat’s position in defence and institutional applications.

Underneath the market drama, the financial picture has improved markedly. A multi?stage capital reorganisation, including a €670 million rights issue and further reserved capital measures, has brought net debt down to a targeted ratio of around 2.5x EBITDA. JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank have both upgraded their ratings to “Neutral” and “Hold” respectively, citing the better balance sheet rather than any price momentum. A €5 billion refinancing has been completed, and the order backlog stands at €3.4 billion, providing roughly 2.8 years of revenue visibility, mainly from connectivity.

Operationally, LEO revenue rose 65% on an adjusted basis in the third quarter of the current fiscal year. Total revenue came in at €293 million – a reported decline of 2.3%, but up 3.1% on a like?for?like basis. The legacy Video segment continued to shrink, falling 15.7%. Management expects full?year LEO growth of around 50% and stable revenue across the operating verticals for the year ending June 30.

Technically, the stock sits 42% above its 200?day moving average, while the relative strength index of 38 suggests a cooling after the recent surge. The annualised 30?day volatility of nearly 88% underlines how edgy trading remains. With the SpaceX roadshow beginning on June 4 and the listing scheduled for June 12, every valuation signal will likely reverberate through Eutelsat’s shares. The next hard catalyst for the company itself comes on August 7, 2026, when it reports full?year results for 2025/26. Until then, the order book and the LEO growth narrative will have to do some heavy lifting – and keep the battle between proxy?trade enthusiasm and analyst caution alive.