Eutelsat's €350M French Defence Contract and Angola Deal Overshadowed by India Security Review

Eutelsat secures landmark French defence deal and Angola LEO services, but shares tumble 10% amid Indian regulatory review and high volatility, highlighting persistent uncertainty.

Eutelsat secured two substantial commercial wins this week — a landmark French military communications contract worth up to €350 million and a multi-year LEO services deal in Angola — yet investors sent the stock sharply lower, highlighting persistent uncertainty around regulatory hurdles and the group's volatile trading profile.

Shares of the Paris-based satellite operator tumbled as much as 10.25% to €2.58 during Tuesday's session, before recovering slightly to trade at €2.73, a decline of 5.21% on the day. The move adds to a steep slide from the 52-week high of €4.62 reached in late May, leaving the stock some 41-44% below that peak depending on the closing reference. Despite the recent weakness, the equity has still gained 44-52% year-to-date, reflecting a volatile rally earlier in 2025.

French defence win and African push

The CENTAURE project represents the first drawdown under the larger NEXUS framework agreement with the French defence ministry. The contract carries a total potential value of €350 million over as many as eight years, with an initial firm commitment of €138 million for four years. Eutelsat will supply capacity from its OneWeb low-earth-orbit satellite constellation, providing encrypted connections for secure military missions.

"This agreement demonstrates the ministry's confidence in our OneWeb fleet," said chief executive Jean-François Fallacher. Eutelsat, which merged with OneWeb in 2023, operates Europe's only global LEO network immediately available for government use, giving it a strategic edge in the defence segment until the European IRIS² constellation becomes operational.

Alongside the French contract, the group signed a separate multi-year deal with Mercury, a subsidiary of Angola's Sonangol conglomerate, to expand OneWeb-based LEO services in the country. Eutelsat is the only licensed LEO operator in Angola and already has a local ground station and network node in place. The partnership targets corporate clients, offshore operators, government agencies and telecoms providers, tapping rising demand for secure, low-latency connectivity.

India regulatory probe adds to headwinds

While the African and European deals reinforce Eutelsat's commercial momentum, a regulatory development in India is giving investors pause. The country's interior ministry has launched a comprehensive security review of global satellite constellations, including Eutelsat-OneWeb, Starlink and the SES-Jio joint venture. The focus is on "signal spillage" — unintentional radio emissions that bleed into neighbouring territories or unlicensed frequencies. Although Eutelsat-OneWeb already holds a GMPCS licence in India, the ministry's security scrutiny introduces fresh uncertainty for all non-broadcast satellite operators in the region.

Technical picture and upcoming catalyst

Trading conditions remain exceptionally turbulent: the annualised 30-day volatility stands at 108%, while the relative strength index has dipped to 37.2–39.7 points, hovering just above oversold territory. The 200-day moving average at €2.67 provided support during the session, with the stock trading marginally above that level. Connectivity services now account for roughly 55% of Eutelsat's operating revenue, underlining the strategic shift from traditional GEO video broadcasting to fast-growing LEO data services.

Investors will be watching for the group's full-year results for 2025/26, expected in August, to see whether new international contracts and rising LEO revenue can stabilise the share price. Until then, the combination of a major defence win, an African expansion, and a cloud of regulatory risk from India is giving the market plenty to weigh — and little consensus on direction.