Energy Fuels’ Strategic Ambition Gains Momentum with Major Project Study

Energy Fuels CA2926717083

A newly updated feasibility study for a key mineral sands project has provided a significant boost to the investment thesis for Energy Fuels Inc. The detailed analysis of the company's wholly-owned Vara Mada venture in Madagascar outlines a compelling profile of high profitability, long-term cash flow generation, and a pivotal potential role in reshaping Western supply chains for critical materials.

Released on January 8, 2026, the revised study for the Vara Mada project—formerly known as Toliara—confirms its standing as a world-class asset. The financial metrics are substantial and position it among the top tier of global resource developments.

Key figures from the after-tax, pre-financing analysis include:
* A net present value (NPV) of $1.8 billion, using a 10% discount rate.
* This translates to an NPV of $7.30 per share based on the current share count.
* An impressive internal rate of return (IRR) of 24.9%.
* An anticipated average annual EBITDA contribution of $387 million over the mine's life, with a modeled average EBITDA margin of 72%.
* Projected average annual free cash flow of $264 million.
* An initial mine life of 38 years, with identified potential for further expansion.

Phased Investment Approach and Strategic Supply Chain Role

The capital expenditure plan is structured in phases, allowing for a measured ramp-up to full capacity. Initial pre-FID (Final Investment Decision) capital is estimated at $121 million. Stage 1, targeting a processing capacity of 13 million tonnes of mineral sands per year, carries an estimated capex of $769 million. A subsequent Stage 2 investment of $142 million would nearly double annual capacity to 25 million tonnes.

Beyond the strong economics, Vara Mada's strategic importance is a central theme. Based on its monazite ore and combined with Energy Fuels' other mineral sands holdings, the project could eventually supply a significant portion of U.S. demand for rare earth oxides. Potential output includes up to 30% of U.S. light rare earth oxide needs and a substantial 85% of domestic demand for heavy rare earth oxides, including critical elements like dysprosium and terbium.

CEO Mark S. Chalmers has labeled the asset "generational" and "one-of-a-kind," underscoring its potential to alter supply dynamics for these critical materials.

Integration with U.S. Processing Creates a Unique Model

The second pillar of the strategy involves the company's existing White Mesa Mill in Utah. This facility is slated to process the monazite concentrate from Madagascar into high-purity, separated rare earth oxides. Currently, the mill's Phase 1 circuit can process up to 10,000 tonnes of monazite per year, producing approximately 1,000 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide annually.

Energy Fuels plans to expand this Phase 1 capacity to also produce heavy rare earth products, targeting up to 48 tonnes of dysprosium oxide and 14 tonnes of terbium oxide per year. The company indicates this expanded production could commence as early as the fourth quarter of 2026, transforming Energy Fuels from a miner into an integrated producer of critical magnet materials.

Supportive Market Backdrop

The study's release coincides with a favorable environment in the uranium sector, another core business for the company. In early January 2026, uranium prices climbed to approximately $82 per pound, reaching their highest level in over two months.

This is complemented by policy support. On January 5, the U.S. Department of Energy announced contracts worth $2.7 billion aimed at bolstering domestic uranium enrichment. Such initiatives improve sentiment across the nuclear fuel sector, providing indirect tailwinds for companies like Energy Fuels that operate at the intersection of uranium and critical minerals.

Share Performance Reflects Renewed Optimism

Energy Fuels' equity has demonstrated remarkable strength over the past year. The shares have advanced approximately 246% on a 12-month basis, with a gain of nearly 43% in the last month alone. The stock closed at $18.16 on Friday, a modest daily decline of 2.31% that followed a significant rally. Notably, the current price sits almost 480% above its 52-week low of $3.14.

Upcoming Catalysts on the Horizon

Further updates are expected shortly that will add detail to the investment narrative. Energy Fuels intends to release a separate feasibility study for the monazite processing circuit at the White Mesa Mill in the coming weeks. This analysis will focus on the downstream value addition and the integrated economics of mining and processing.

Concurrently, operational performance remains in focus. The Q4 2025 report, expected in early 2026, will provide additional insights. This is particularly relevant as the company stated in December 2025 that it had already exceeded its full-year guidance for uranium production and sales. Together, these forthcoming catalysts will be key in determining whether the robust project fundamentals translate into sustained shareholder value.