Energy Fuels Shares Surge on Strategic Acquisition and Expansion Plans

Energy Fuels CA2926717083

Shares of Energy Fuels Inc. have experienced a significant rally in January, driven by a major strategic acquisition and the release of robust financial projections for a key expansion project. The stock's value increased by approximately 75% in less than four weeks, reflecting strong investor confidence in the company's evolving strategy.

Energy Fuels maintains a solid balance sheet, reporting $235 million in liquid assets and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.31. The company also exceeded its uranium production forecast for the 2025 fiscal year, delivering over one million pounds of finished uranium. Its market capitalization now stands at approximately CAD $8.28 billion (roughly USD $6.1 billion), indicating the market's reassessment of its combined uranium production, rare earths processing potential, and development projects.

Acquisition to Forge Integrated Rare Earths Chain

A primary catalyst for the re-rating was the announcement on January 20 of an agreement to acquire Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) for about $299 million. Executed under an Australian scheme of arrangement, the deal values ASM at AUD $1.60 per share, representing a 121% premium to its closing price on January 20.

Key transaction details include:
* ASM shareholders will receive 0.053 Energy Fuels shares plus an unfranked special dividend of up to AUD $0.13 per ASM share held.
* Upon completion, ASM shareholders are expected to own approximately 5.8% of the combined entity.
* The transaction, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals, is anticipated to close by the end of June 2026.
* The merged company will operate facilities across the United States, South Korea, and Australia.

This move is designed to position Energy Fuels as a leading Western producer with a fully integrated "mine-to-metal & alloy" rare earths supply chain.

Phase 2 Expansion Shows Compelling Economics

Earlier in the month, on January 15, the company published a Bankable Feasibility Study for the Phase 2 expansion of its rare earths processing capacity at the White Mesa Mill in Utah. The study outlined a highly profitable project, justifying increased investor interest:

• Net Present Value (NPV): $1.9 billion (at an 8% discount rate), equating to $7.96 per share.
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR): 33% after-tax for the standalone Phase 2 facility.
• Average Annual EBITDA: $311 million for the first 15 years of operation.
• Planned Capacity: 6,000 tonnes per annum of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), 240 tpa of dysprosium, and 66 tpa of terbium.
• Cost Position: Projected to be in the global first quartile, competitive with Chinese suppliers.

When combined with the recently announced Vara-Mada project in Madagascar (NPV $1.8 billion), the total NPV from these two key projects reaches $3.7 billion, or $15.26 per share.

Trading Activity and Price Performance

The stock decisively broke through its 50-day moving average of CAD $23.00, reaching an intraday high of CAD $35.72 on the Toronto exchange. Trading volumes in January were exceptionally heavy, with several days seeing over 17 million shares change hands.

Notable trading sessions included:
* January 23, 2026: Closing price of $25.50 (+4.42%), volume of 17.0 million shares.
* January 22, 2026: Closing price of $24.42 (+8.4%), volume of 19.9 million shares.
* January 21, 2026: Closing price of $22.52, volume of 24.5 million shares.
* January 20, 2026: Closing price of $23.52, volume of 26.6 million shares.

This activity propelled the share price from $14.54 on December 31, 2025, to $25.50 by January 23, 2026.

Mixed Analyst Sentiment Persists

Despite the powerful rally, analyst opinions remain divided. Following the ASM deal announcement, B. Riley analyst Matthew Key raised his price target to $27 and reaffirmed a "Buy" rating. HC Wainwright reiterated its "Buy" recommendation on January 9, 2026, with a $26.75 price target.

In contrast, Roth MKM downgraded the stock to "Strong Sell" in November 2025. On average, the stock currently carries a "Buy" rating, with price targets ranging from $13.00 to $32.00.

The current market reappraisal of Energy Fuels is being shaped by this combination of growing uranium output, plans for a vertically integrated rare earths business, and the compelling economics of its development projects.