Eli Lilly Shares Surge on Analyst Upgrade and Promising Drug Data

Eli Lilly US5324571083

Investors in pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly have received a dual boost of confidence, stemming from a significant analyst upgrade and robust late-stage clinical trial results. These developments reinforce the company's commanding position in the lucrative weight-loss drug market and highlight its strong operational momentum.

The company's recent financial results provide a solid foundation for the current optimism. For the third quarter of 2025, Eli Lilly reported a substantial year-over-year revenue increase of 53.9%, reaching $17.6 billion. This surge was primarily fueled by exceptional demand for its GLP-1 medications, with Mounjaro sales growing 109% and Zepbound sales skyrocketing 185%. Furthermore, earnings per share of $7.02 comfortably exceeded market expectations.

Management has reinforced its confidence by confirming a dividend increase and issuing full-year earnings per share guidance in the range of $23.00 to $23.70. The next significant catalyst for shareholders is the anticipated imminent regulatory submission for the oral weight-loss candidate, Orforglipron.

Daiwa Securities Issues Major Price Target Revision

A key driver of the positive sentiment is a notable reassessment by Daiwa Securities. On December 16, 2025, analyst Narumi Nakagiri elevated his rating on Eli Lilly's stock from "Neutral" to "Buy." The most striking aspect of this update is the dramatic adjustment to the price target, which was raised to $1,230 from a previous $940.

This upward revision signals deep-seated confidence in the firm's future trajectory and aligns with a broader market consensus that has been increasingly favoring buy recommendations. Despite the stock's strong year-to-date performance, which shows a gain of 19.72%, analysts evidently see further room for appreciation.

Retatrutide Trial Data Exceeds Expectations

The bullish outlook is fundamentally supported by compelling data from Eli Lilly's research pipeline. The company presented Phase 3 trial results for its investigational drug Retatrutide, a triple-agonist. The outcomes surpassed many observers' forecasts:

• Weight Reduction: Patients achieved an average weight loss of 28.7% over 68 weeks at the highest dosage.
• Superior Efficacy: This performance even exceeds the effectiveness of the current blockbuster therapy, Zepbound.
• Additional Benefit: The data also indicated a pain-reducing effect for patients suffering from knee osteoarthritis.

These results solidify Eli Lilly's dominance in the cardiometabolic health sector, a market estimated to be worth $100 billion. The company has scheduled seven additional Phase 3 trials for this drug candidate in 2026.