Diverging Views Emerge on Rigetti’s Quantum Computing Path

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The stock of quantum computing specialist Rigetti Computing has been on a volatile ride in recent weeks, prompting a fresh wave of analysis from Wall Street. The core debate centers on whether the company's strategy can justify its valuation and meet lofty market expectations, or if investor optimism has run too far ahead of commercial reality.

This analyst scrutiny comes as the equity has surrendered most of the gains from its spectacular autumn rally. Having peaked at a 52-week high of €48.36 in mid-October, the share price has since retreated by approximately 58%, trading just marginally above its annual low of €19.80. This sharp pullback signals a significant market reassessment, with investors appearing to take a more critical view of the timeline for quantum computing's commercialization.

The share price has recently shown signs of stabilization around the €20 level following a steep decline the prior week. It closed yesterday at €20.50, representing an 8% drop over the past seven days and positioning it well below the 50-day moving average of €26.69. The 14-day Relative Strength Index reading of 51.1 suggests neutral, short-term momentum following the correction.

Conflicting Analyst Takes Highlight Uncertainty

Two prominent research firms have recently initiated coverage with starkly contrasting opinions, illustrating the deep uncertainty surrounding Rigetti's prospects.

Jefferies adopted a cautious stance, issuing a "Hold" rating with a $30 price target. While this implies a theoretical upside of over 25%, the firm considers this a restrained outlook for a classic growth stock. Jefferies cites two primary concerns: an ambitious valuation and operational execution risks. The analysis acknowledges Rigetti's technological strengths, particularly its chiplet-based quantum processor architecture, which offers compelling scalability potential. However, it notes "offsetting risks," including near-term revenue that remains heavily dependent on government contracts, limiting visibility and complicating planning.

On a positive note, Jefferies highlights Rigetti's strong balance sheet. The company is debt-free and holds approximately $600 million in liquidity, providing a substantial runway to advance its technology without immediate need for additional capital. Despite this financial cushion, Jefferies concludes the risk-reward profile warrants caution due to stock volatility and an unclear path to monetization.

In contrast, Mizuho launched coverage with a significantly more bullish "Outperform" rating and a $50 price target. This divergence in price targets—spanning from $30 to $50—underscores the widely differing perspectives on the risks and opportunities within Rigetti's business model. Mizuho's optimism appears rooted in the long-term potential should the "Quantum Computing as a Service" (QCaaS) market gain substantial traction. The consensus rating currently oscillates between "Moderate Buy" and "Hold," indicating the market is demanding proof in the form of tangible revenue growth.

Fundamental Picture: Building Amid Challenges

Rigetti's recent third-quarter earnings report, released on November 10, painted a mixed fundamental picture. The company posted a smaller-than-expected loss per share of -$0.03, beating the forecasted -$0.05. However, revenue of $1.95 million fell short of the $2.17 million consensus and was down roughly 18% year-over-year.

This combination—better profitability but declining sales—has fueled skepticism among investors who viewed the stock's 2025 surge as excessive. Their argument is that operational progress cannot keep pace with the equity rally, and the commercial adoption of quantum computing is progressing more slowly than previously priced into the stock.

Concurrently, Rigetti continues to announce strategic advancements. The company is collaborating with NVIDIA on the development of the NVQLink platform and has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Indian research center C-DAC for the joint development of hybrid quantum systems. Market observers view such partnerships as a validation of Rigetti's technology, even if they are unlikely to contribute meaningfully to revenue in the immediate term.

The Crucial Test Ahead: 2026 Delivery

All eyes are now on the scheduled delivery of Rigetti's next-generation systems in the first half of 2026. These systems are considered pivotal for practically validating the QCaaS business model and attracting a broader base of paying customers onto the platform. A successful rollout that demonstrably expands usage and accelerates the revenue trajectory could alleviate the cautious stance held by some analysts.

For a sustained trend reversal, the market is likely to demand two key developments: the successful 2026 launch of the new systems and a visible transition in revenue streams away from heavy reliance on government contracts toward diversified, commercial demand.