Divergent Signals for ASML: Bullish Forecasts Amid Internal Unrest

Bernstein raises ASML target to $1,971 on DRAM boom, while a strike over 1,700 job cuts pressures shares. Q1 2026 earnings due April 15.

Investors in ASML Holding NV are currently weighing two starkly contrasting developments. While a prominent research firm has issued an exceptionally bullish outlook for the semiconductor equipment maker, significant labor unrest is unfolding at its headquarters.

Bernstein's Upgraded Outlook and Price Target

Market analysts at Bernstein have named ASML their top selection within the European semiconductor sector. The firm has raised its price target for the company's shares to $1,971, a figure that substantially exceeds the current analyst consensus of $1,469. This optimistic stance is fundamentally tied to expectations for a surge in the DRAM market.

Research strategist David Dai anticipates a major acceleration in memory chip capacity expansion. Projections indicate monthly wafer start additions will climb from 145,000 in 2025 to 435,000 by 2028. This trajectory is expected to drive direct increases in orders for ASML's cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems. Bernstein forecasts that shipments of these EUV machines to DRAM customers alone will reach approximately 44 units in 2028, more than double the 18 units estimated for 2025. The recent earlier-than-planned opening of SK Hynix's second M15X cleanroom in March 2026 is cited as evidence of this accelerating industry momentum.

Mounting Labor Tensions and Share Price Pressure

Simultaneously, internal conflict is escalating over management's proposal to reduce its workforce by 1,700 positions, representing about 3.8% of employees. This has prompted strike action, with over 1,000 staff members at the Veldhoven headquarters walking off the job. The FNV trade union is demanding a fundamental revision of the restructuring plans, arguing that ASML's strong financial position makes such cuts unnecessary. The union points to the company's 2025 net profit of €9.6 billion and a share buyback program worth €12 billion scheduled through 2028 as proof that resources exist for a more socially acceptable solution.

The market reaction to this discord was evident recently, when ASML's equity declined roughly 4% in a single trading session. This loss was steeper than the approximately 3% drop seen in the broader technology equipment sector. Union representatives are expected to respond to the company's social plan by April 7, with the formal opinion of the works council scheduled for May.

Geopolitical Considerations and Upcoming Milestones

Beyond domestic labor issues, China remains a structural uncertainty for ASML's business model. The region accounted for 29.1% of total revenue in 2025. The company's growth targets for 2026, which envision sales between €34 billion and €39 billion, are predicated on the assumption that any potential slowdown in Chinese demand will be offset by increased business in Taiwan and South Korea.

The upcoming first-quarter earnings report, set for release on April 15, 2026, will provide critical data points. Investors will scrutinize the results for early signs of strengthening DRAM demand within the order book and for any indication of whether labor relations have deteriorated or improved.