Deutsche Telekom Shares Test Lows as Record Buybacks and Union Deal Seek to Stem the Bleeding

DT shares near €26.45, oversold RSI of 31.7, as €2B buyback and T-Mobile dividend offset wage deal uncertainty and sector headwinds.

The disconnect between Deutsche Telekom’s operational strength and its languishing share price has rarely been starker. The stock hovers at €26.45, a whisker above its 52-week low of €25.99, despite a robust first quarter and a wave of corporate support measures. Today’s formal vote by ver.di’s pay commission on a three-stage wage package could remove a key uncertainty, even as the company’s own buyback programme and a dividend boost from T-Mobile US provide financial ballast.

Quickening the Buyback Pace

Since launching a €2bn share repurchase programme on 2 April, the Bonn-based group has already retired more than 15 million of its own shares. The buying accelerated in early June: during the week of 8–12 June alone, the company snapped up roughly 1.6 million shares for approximately €45.1m, at a weighted average price of €27.90 — well above the current market level. The total programme is slated to run through the end of the year.

So far, the effect on the stock has been limited. The shares have shed nearly 9% over the past 30 days and stand more than 23% below the February 2026 peak of €34.35. The relative strength index sits at 31.7, deep in oversold territory, suggesting that selling pressure may be exhausting itself.

T-Mobile US Strengthens the Cash Pipeline

Ancillary support comes from across the Atlantic. T-Mobile US, in which Telekom holds a 53% stake, raised its quarterly dividend by almost 16% to $1.02 a share. The increased distribution bolsters the parent company’s cash inflows, helping to fund an expensive fibre rollout in Germany and to sustain its own dividend policy. Broader concerns about US telecom regulation and the rise of satellite competitors such as Starlink, however, have tempered enthusiasm for the sector.

A Wage Deal Nears the Finish Line

Ver.di’s collective bargaining committee is expected to approve today the accord reached in Frankfurt at the end of May, following four rounds of negotiations that involved more than 32,000 strikers. The committee has already voted unanimously in favour and recommends acceptance, making today’s ballot a largely formal step.

The agreement covers roughly 60,000 workers and is structured in three phases. From August 2026, the monthly supplementary payment for full-time staff rises by €150 to €340. In July 2027 it increases further to €480, and in June 2028 the entire pay scale is lifted by 2.4%. Based on a reference annual salary of around €55,000, the total increase amounts to 8.5%. The deal also rules out operational redundancies for its full duration, which runs until the end of 2028. For management, the main benefit is planning certainty on a major cost line.

Fundamentals Point Upwards, Yet the Chart Points Down

Operationally, the picture is bright. First-quarter revenue grew organically 4.7% to €29.9bn, while adjusted EBITDA AL rose 7.5% to €11.5bn. The company subsequently raised its full-year guidance, now targeting roughly €47.5bn in adjusted EBITDA AL and more than €19.8bn in free cash flow AL for 2026.

Analysts see a substantial gap between current valuation and fair value. According to a 16 June compilation, 12-month consensus price targets range between €37.60 and €39.18, implying upside of more than 40% from present levels. The forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 13.8 is moderate by sector standards.

What Could Break the Impasse

A positive union vote today would mark the end of months of labour unrest and lock in a fixed cost framework. Yet the stock’s recent trajectory suggests that removing that overhang alone may not be enough to shift sentiment. The next major catalyst arrives on 6 August, when second-quarter results will show whether the underlying operational momentum is strong enough to pull the share price back into line with the fundamentals. In the meantime, the combination of aggressive buybacks, a steady transatlantic dividend stream, and a cleared labour horizon provides at least the ingredients for a technical rebound — provided the support just above €26 holds.