Deutsche Telekom’s Stock Caught Between Labour Talks and a Transatlantic Earnings Test

As union negotiations for higher wages continue, all eyes are on T-Mobile US quarterly results, with Deutsche Telekom stock down 13% in a month.

The German telecoms giant enters a defining stretch this week, with two events pulling in opposite directions. While union negotiators push for higher wages at home, the market’s attention is fixed firmly on the quarterly report from T-Mobile US, the American subsidiary that generates the lion’s share of group profits. The stock, already nursing a 13 percent decline over the past month, is walking a tightrope.

Labour Talks Inch Forward Without a Deal

In Siegburg, ver.di is pressing its case for roughly 60,000 tariff employees — though the secondary source puts the figure closer to 70,000 when including all workers covered by the collective agreement. The union is demanding a 6.6 percent pay increase over a twelve-month term, plus an annual loyalty bonus of €660 for members. During the first round of talks in mid-April, Deutsche Telekom signalled a willingness to negotiate but declined to table an offer, citing competitive pressures, efficiency needs, and the heavy capital demands of its fibre rollout.

Today’s second round is expected to produce a concrete proposal from management, though whether one materialises remains uncertain. Four bargaining sessions have been scheduled through the end of May, making a swift resolution unlikely.

T-Mobile US Earnings Hold the Key

Far more consequential for the share price are the first-quarter numbers from T-Mobile US, due after the closing bell on Wall Street on 28 April. Deutsche Telekom owns just over 53 percent of the American operator, which is by far the group’s biggest profit engine. Analysts project revenue of roughly $23 billion for the quarter, representing a near-10 percent year-on-year increase. However, earnings per share are expected to drop more than 20 percent to $2.06, weighed down by one-off items that boosted the prior-year period.

A disappointing print would pile further pressure on a stock already trading at €27.61 — roughly 6 percent below its 200-day moving average and nearly 20 percent off its 52-week high. The chart turned decisively bearish on 22 April, when the share price crossed below that key long-term average, a classic technical sell signal. The first support level sits around €28.50, with the 52-week low at €26.45.

Analyst Optimism Meets a Bruised Chart

Despite the technical damage, several investment banks remain firmly bullish. Barclays analyst Mathieu Robilliard retains an “Overweight” rating with a €39.50 price target, arguing that recent press speculation about a potential merger with T-Mobile US is not a cause for alarm. He views any such transaction as merely the opening move in a broader wave of industry consolidation. UBS analyst Polo Tang goes further, describing the sell-off as a buying opportunity. He notes that T-Mobile US shares have also fallen, which he calls inconsistent with fundamentals, and points to recent reports suggesting a deal is not imminent. His target stands at €36.20.

The consensus price target from 68 analysts is €40.10 — roughly 45 percent above the current level. That gap between street optimism and market reality is unusually wide.

Satellite Bet and Fibre Ambitions

Away from the near-term noise, Deutsche Telekom is quietly expanding its business portfolio. Since early 2026, it has offered “Satellite Internet Access by Starlink,” positioning itself as the only German network operator to provide fully managed satellite-based broadband for enterprise customers. The service delivers download speeds of up to 400 Mbit/s and targets large corporations and public-sector clients that require redundancy at sites lacking full fibre or mobile coverage. The reliance on a single US provider for critical infrastructure carries some controversy, but the company frames itself as a reliable intermediary ensuring service quality and local support for German clients.

On the fibre front, the network now reaches 12.6 million households, with a target of at least 25 million by 2030.

What Comes Next

T-Mobile US’s quarterly release will set the tone for Deutsche Telekom’s own results, due on 13 May. Management is guiding for adjusted EBITDA of €47.4 billion in 2026 and free cash flow of nearly €20 billion. If the May report confirms those targets, the stock would have a concrete catalyst for a rebound.

For now, the share price remains captive to transatlantic crosscurrents — labour tensions in Germany, merger whispers in the US, and a quarterly report that could either validate the bulls or deepen the technical damage.