Deutsche Telekom’s Buyback Machine Keeps Running as Deutsche Bank Trims Its Ambitions

Deutsche Telekom shares edge up as buybacks provide support, but analyst cuts price target to €40 citing satellite internet and AI infrastructure competition.

The Bonn-based telecoms giant is navigating a curious moment: its US subsidiary has just upgraded its cash-flow forecast for the full year, yet a prominent analyst has trimmed his price target on the stock, citing fresh competitive threats from satellite internet and AI infrastructure projects. For investors trying to read the tea leaves, the picture is anything but simple.

Deutsche Telekom shares closed Friday at €26.45, up 1.54% on the day, recovering some ground after a punishing stretch. The stock has lost 4.82% since the start of 2026 and is down 17.14% over the past twelve months — a decline that has left it trading 7.70% below its 200-day moving average and a full 23% beneath its 52-week high of €34.35.

Buybacks Provide a Floor

The company’s ongoing share repurchase programme is providing a steady undercurrent of demand. On 20 July, Deutsche Telekom issued its third update on the 2026 buyback, disclosing that it had acquired 1,351,740 of its own shares between 13 and 17 July at a weighted average price of roughly €26.73. That follows the purchase of 1,348,210 shares in the prior week at a similar level. Since the programme began on 1 July, the group has bought back a total of 3,673,275 shares.

The fact that the average buyback price of €26.73 sits just a whisker above Friday’s closing level suggests management sees current valuations as fair, regardless of short-term noise. For shareholders, these repurchases act as a structural support mechanism, steadily reducing the share count and absorbing selling pressure.

Analyst Caution Amid Competitive Shifts

Yet not everyone is convinced the stock is out of the woods. On Friday, Deutsche Bank Research analyst Robert Grindle lowered his price target on Deutsche Telekom from €42.00 to €40.00, while maintaining a “Buy” rating. His reasoning: rising competition from satellite-based internet services and the growing capital demands of AI-related infrastructure projects are reshaping the telecom landscape in ways that could weigh on the German group’s growth trajectory.

The downgraded target still implies substantial upside from current levels, but it injects a note of caution into a narrative that had been buoyed by T-Mobile US’s improved cash-flow outlook. The US unit, which provides the bulk of Deutsche Telekom’s dividend capacity and funds the buyback programme, raised its full-year cash-flow guidance even as its quarterly revenue fell fractionally short of expectations. The subsidiary also beat forecasts on new customer additions and earnings per share.

The T-Mobile US Factor

Across the Atlantic, T-Mobile US has been generating headlines of a different sort. Its annual general meeting on Thursday approved a new compensation package for CEO Srini Gopalan with 73.3% of votes cast, despite vocal criticism from some shareholders who pointed to a sharp increase in his pay since his move from the German parent company. The vote was a clear endorsement from the majority, but the dissent underscores the sensitivity around executive remuneration at a time when the US wireless market is becoming increasingly saturated.

That saturation is the key risk for Deutsche Telekom. T-Mobile US faces tariff restructuring in the third quarter, which could put pressure on customer retention. If churn rates rise more than expected, the impact would flow directly back to Bonn, potentially crimping the cash flows that underpin the buyback programme and the dividend.

Technical Crossroads

On the charts, the stock is hovering in a zone that could determine its near-term direction. It currently sits 2.73% below its 50-day moving average of €27.19. A decisive break above that level would open the path toward the 200-day average at €28.66, a move that would signal a genuine shift in momentum. The relative strength index stands at 49.3, a neutral reading that leaves room for further upside without signalling overbought conditions.

The bear case, however, is equally well-defined. If the broader downtrend reasserts itself, the 52-week low of €23.54 could come back into play. The stock’s 30-day annualised volatility of 33.58% serves as a reminder that sharp swings remain the norm, making short-term positioning a high-risk game.

What’s Next

All eyes are now on 6 August, when Deutsche Telekom will publish its second-quarter and first-half results. CEO Tim Höttges is scheduled to host an analyst call afterwards, and investors will be looking for evidence of whether the competitive pressures flagged by Deutsche Bank are already showing up in the numbers. They will also want to see how the upgraded US cash flows are translating into the group’s consolidated balance sheet.

For now, the stock is defending the €26 level. As long as that holds, a stabilisation attempt toward the 50-day average looks plausible. But with energy costs elevated, geopolitical tensions simmering and the US market showing signs of maturity, the path higher is far from guaranteed.