Deutsche Telekom’s Buyback Blitz Meets Labour Storm as Q1 Report Looms

Deutsche Telekom juggles €2B buyback and German strikes as T-Mobile US shines; Q1 results on May 13 will reveal if US momentum offsets labor unrest.

The Bonn-based telecoms giant is pulling two levers simultaneously: showering investors with share buybacks while bracing for a wave of strikes that has already spread across a dozen German states. The tension between these forces is set to come to a head when first-quarter results land on May 13.

Since April 2, Deutsche Telekom has scooped up roughly 5.77 million of its own shares, part of a €2 billion buyback programme for 2026. In the final week of April alone, the company spent over €36 million repurchasing around 1.3 million shares. The move is designed to shrink the share count and boost earnings per share for remaining holders — a classic signal of management confidence.

But the market has yet to cheer. The stock has shed 10% over the past month, trading at €27.73, well below its 50-day moving average of roughly €31. The shares are now about 19% off their 52-week high, and while the relative strength index hovers near 72 — suggesting a short-term overbought condition — chartists see no imminent reversal.

The sell-off reflects a deeper unease. Trade union ver.di has seized on the buyback programme as evidence that the company has deep pockets. It is demanding a 6.6% pay rise for roughly 60,000 tariff employees over a 12-month term, plus an annual member bonus of €660 and an extra €120 per month for apprentices. Warning strikes are already hitting service hotlines, technical support, and customer appointments in 12 federal states. The third round of negotiations is scheduled for May 11-12, with a fourth set for May 26-27.

On the operational front, the picture is more encouraging. T-Mobile US, the group’s crown jewel, posted first-quarter service revenues of $18.8 billion, up 11% year-on-year, while adjusted core EBITDA rose 12% to $9.2 billion. The US arm also raised its full-year guidance, now expecting 950,000 to 1.05 million postpaid net additions on an account basis, up from a previous range of 900,000 to 1 million.

Yet analysts are keeping a wary eye on churn. DZ Bank recently trimmed its fair value estimate for T-Mobile US to $250, citing slightly higher customer defections in North America. Analyst Matthias Volkert nonetheless maintained a buy rating, noting that the strong transatlantic earnings continue to underwrite the parent company’s heavy European infrastructure spending.

That spending is visible on the ground. In Upper Bavaria, the group kicked off a new fibre-optic project on Thursday, aiming to connect hundreds of households to high-speed networks by 2028. The expansion is part of a broader push that has already laid 22 kilometres of glass fibre in the municipality of Edling alone.

For the full group, management is targeting adjusted operating earnings of around €47 billion and free cash flow of roughly €19.8 billion. Analysts, on average, expect adjusted earnings per share of €2.17 for the full year.

The May 13 quarterly report will test whether the US momentum can offset the drag from German labour unrest and rising build-out costs. The outcome of the tariff talks by then will be just as critical in shaping investor sentiment for the weeks ahead.