Deutsche Telekom Raises Profit Forecast as US Arm and AI Drive Growth, but Labour Stalemate Caps Sentiment

Deutsche Telekom lifts 2026 EBITDA forecast to €47.5bn, fueled by T-Mobile US and AI expansion, but faces wage strikes and a stock trading below key technical levels.

Deutsche Telekom has lifted its adjusted EBITDA target for 2026 to roughly €47.5bn, underpinned by a surging T-Mobile US and an expanding artificial intelligence push that is already filling up Nvidia chip capacity in Munich. But the upbeat outlook is colliding with a domestic labour dispute and a stock that remains trapped below key moving averages.

In the first quarter, the Bonn-based group saw organic group revenue climb to nearly €30bn, while adjusted EBITDA AL rose 7.5%. Net profit from continuing operations came in at €2.6bn. The biggest contribution came from the US unit, where service revenue jumped 11.5% and operating earnings expanded at a similar pace. Deutsche Telekom’s effective stake in T-Mobile US has now reached almost 54%, and management also raised its free cash flow target to north of €19.8bn.

Artificial intelligence emerged as a fresh growth lever. A new chatbot handled one million calls in the opening quarter, a volume the company expects to double over the rest of the year. The technology is also accelerating software development, while dedicated Nvidia AI chips at a Munich facility are already fully booked.

The domestic fibre rollout, meanwhile, remains a capital-intensive undertaking. The group connected 3.6 million European households with fibre last year, and 2.2 million German clients now actively use a fibre line. To keep the build-out on track, the investment budget has been increased by €800m. Yet the legacy copper network continues to shrink, leading to a slight net decline in total broadband connections even as the mobile business added 200,000 contract customers in Germany.

Away from the numbers, a hard-fought wage dispute is escalating. The ver.di union is demanding 6.6% more pay for tariff employees. Recently 9,000 workers walked out in warning strikes, and for the first time the walkouts included staff from sales and IT subsidiaries. The fourth round of talks is scheduled for the coming weeks.

The stock is struggling to price in the operational momentum. On Thursday, shares fell 1.45% to €27.83, leaving the year-to-date return barely in negative territory. The equity continues to trade below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and has been unable to sustainably breach the €30 resistance level. Despite the guidance upgrade and solid fundamentals, the technical picture remains fractured.