Deutsche Telekom Lifts EBITDA Guidance as Wage Talks Intensify and Network Build-Out Continues

German telecom giant posts strong Q1 results with €11.5B EBITDA, raises 2026 guidance, faces labor negotiations with ver.di union, and continues 5G/4G rollout. Stock target €38.56.

Deutsche Telekom has emerged from the first quarter with a stronger hand than it had anticipated, yet the road ahead is anything but smooth. The group raised its full-year EBITDA forecast on the back of solid operational momentum, even as a bitter wage dispute looms and the capital-intensive push into next-generation networks remains in full swing.

The Bonn-based telecoms giant reported organic revenue growth of 4.7% in the three months to March, reaching €29.9 billion. Adjusted EBITDA AL — a closely watched profitability metric — climbed 7.5% on an organic basis to €11.5 billion, while free cash flow AL jumped to €5.7 billion. Encouraged by the performance, management now expects adjusted EBITDA AL of around €47.5 billion for the full year 2026 and free cash flow AL of more than €19.8 billion. The board also outlined a €2 billion share buyback programme and proposed a dividend of €1.00 per share for the 2025 financial year.

Yet the cheerful earnings story is playing out against the backdrop of tense labour negotiations. The fourth round of collective bargaining with the ver.di union is imminent, following a series of warning strikes in previous weeks. Although the stock has largely shrugged off the disruption so far, the outcome of the talks could prove decisive for sentiment. Deutsche Telekom is also pressing ahead with network upgrades across Germany, activating new 4G and 5G sites in states including Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Hesse and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Specific locations such as Mosbach, Mannheim, Bad Wörishofen, Joachimsthal and Krakow am See have been expanded, widening the infrastructure gap with rivals Vodafone and o2.

Analysts see considerable upside from current levels. The consensus price target stands at €38.56, implying a roughly 32% premium to Friday’s closing price of €29.26. The stock advanced 5.63% over the week, though it remains approximately 14.6% below its 52-week high of €34.25. Technically, the relative strength index sits at 69.6 — just shy of the classic overbought threshold — while the shares hover a hair beneath their 50-day moving average of €29.79 and almost exactly on the 200-day line of €29.19.

Beyond the wage talks, the next major catalyst is the second-quarter earnings release scheduled for 6 August 2026. In the meantime, the pace of fibre and mobile roll-outs and the gradual narrowing of the gap to the 52-week peak will keep investors watching. Analysts are already pencilling in a dividend of €1.13 per share for 2026, up from the €1.00 payout for last year — a figure that hinges on sustaining robust cash flows amid heavy capital expenditure.