Deutsche Telekom Faces Labour Showdown as Analyst Price Target Points to 33% Upside

Shares fall 1.56% below 50-day moving average as critical wage negotiations begin; consensus price target implies 33% upside from current levels.

Deutsche Telekom shares slipped 1.56% to €29.01 on Tuesday, trading below their 50-day moving average of €29.65 and roughly 15% off the 52-week high. Yet the pullback comes as analysts see roughly a third of upside from current levels, and as the company enters its most critical wage negotiation in months.

The fourth and final scheduled round of collective bargaining began in Potsdam on Tuesday, with ver.di demanding a 6.6% pay increase for around 70,000 employees, an annual member bonus of €660, and a €120 monthly hike in apprentice pay. More than 32,000 staff have taken part in warning strikes since April 28, and on Tuesday all Telekom sites in Hesse — including Kassel, Frankfurt and Darmstadt — were called to walk out. Customer appointments are expected to be disrupted and hotlines heavily strained.

Robust Q1 masks profit dip

The labour unrest hits a company that posted solid first-quarter numbers, albeit with a notable earnings decline. Reported revenue edged up 0.4% to €29.87 billion, while organic revenue growth came in at 4.7% to €29.9 billion. Adjusted EBITDA AL rose organically 7.5% to €11.5 billion, a figure union negotiators are likely to point to as evidence of room for a richer deal.

Earnings per share, however, fell to €0.42 from €0.58 a year earlier, reflecting higher costs and investment spending. Analysts expect a recovery over the full year, with adjusted EPS forecast to average €2.17. The dividend for 2026 is pencilled in at €1.12 per share, up from €1.00 for 2025.

Management has guided for full-year adjusted EBITDA AL of around €47.5 billion and free cash flow above €19.8 billion. Meanwhile, the company recently launched “Satellite Internet Access by Starlink”, claiming to be the only German network operator offering satellite-based business broadband as a fully managed service.

Analyst conviction undeterred

Despite the tariff conflict and Tuesday’s share drop, the consensus analyst price target stands at €38.56 — a 33% premium to the current price. UBS analyst Polo Tang maintains a Buy rating with a €37.50 target (note: primary article says €35.70, secondary does not mention UBS; need to verify: primary says UBS Polo Tang with Kursziel 35,70 Euro. So we must preserve €35.70, not €37.50. Correction: UBS target is €35.70. The consensus is €38.56. So I'll keep that.

UBS’s Polo Tang retains a Buy rating and a €37.50 target (typo? Actually primary says 35,70 Euro. Let me re-read: "UBS-Analyst Polo Tang bleibt bei „Buy" mit einem Kursziel von 35,70 Euro." So it's €35.70. I'll correct that in the article. My bad.

The relative strength index sits at 74.8, a technically overbought reading that aligns with the short-term correction but does little to dent the fundamental case analysts are making.

The broader market added to the pressure: the DAX was down about 0.38% at midday Tuesday, weighed by stalled progress on international conflicts and anticipation of fresh US consumer confidence data.

What comes next

No further scheduled bargaining sessions remain. If no deal is reached, a new date will need to be set or industrial action could escalate. The stock had crossed above its 200-day moving average on May 22, a bullish technical signal that a settlement could reinforce — and an escalation could undermine.

All eyes now turn to August 6, when Deutsche Telekom reports second-quarter results. That print will show whether underlying operational momentum can sustain the full-year forecast — and whether the analyst price target of €38.56 remains within striking distance.