Deutsche Telekom Buys Back Nearly One Million Shares This Week as JPMorgan Stands by 53% Upside Target

Deutsche Telekom repurchased €22.5M in shares amid weak price action; stock down 6.93% YTD. JPMorgan maintains Overweight with €40 target, citing historic valuation gap.

Deutsche Telekom repurchased roughly 909,000 of its own shares in the first three days of July, spending about €22.5 million at an average price of €24.74 apiece. The buybacks, executed exclusively on Xetra, are part of the third tranche of a €2 billion programme that began on 5 January. With the stock trading at €25.94 on Friday – up 2.57% from Thursday's close of €25.29 – the shares remain closer to their 52-week low of €23.54 than to the peak of €34.35 hit in late February. The gap to that high stands at 24.48%.

The aggressive capital return comes against a backdrop of weak price action. The stock has shed 6.93% year-to-date, and though Friday's gain snapped a multi-day slide, it still sits well below its key moving averages. The 50-day simple moving average is at €27.38, the 100-day at €29.31, and the 200-day at €28.68, implying the shares are trading 7.73% under their 50-day and roughly 12% below the longer-term trend line. The relative strength index at 46.3 suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions, offering little clarity on whether the latest bounce can be sustained.

Yet JPMorgan sees deep value. Analyst Akhil Dattani reaffirmed an “Overweight” rating and a €40 price target, implying potential upside of 53% from current levels. He argues that the stock's roughly 30% decline since March 2025 has opened a historic valuation gap, and he expects double-digit earnings-per-share growth. The upcoming quarterly report will serve as a key test for that thesis, Dattani noted. The Frankfurt-listed company now carries a market capitalisation of €124.53 billion, with annualised 30-day volatility of 30.64%.

The buyback programme itself is well underway. The first two tranches retired over 35 million shares for more than €1 billion – roughly €471 million in the first quarter and €543 million in the second. The third tranche, which runs until 30 September, has a maximum volume of €560 million. Most repurchased shares are cancelled, with a small portion reserved for board remuneration and employee participation. The programme is executed regardless of the share price level, and the next interim report is expected in the coming weeks.

Whether Friday's recovery marks a genuine turning point or merely a counter-move after months of losses remains an open question. The stock is not oversold according to the RSI, and it lags all major moving averages. However, the combination of an active buyback and a top-tier analyst calling for a 53% rally creates a compelling narrative for contrarian investors. The answer likely hinges on the next quarterly earnings, which will either validate Dattani's growth outlook or leave the stock stuck in its current trading range between the annual low and the falling averages.