D-Wave Quantum’s Supply Chain Crisis Looms Over Earnings After $30 Million January Haul

D-Wave reports Q1 earnings amid record orders but faces supply chain threat after IonQ's acquisition of key partner SkyWater. Revenue expected to drop to $4.1M.

D-Wave Quantum heads into its first-quarter earnings report on Tuesday with a daunting combination of strong order intake and a newly exposed vulnerability. The company booked more than $30 million in new business in January alone, including a system sale and a cloud contract with a Fortune 100 customer. Yet the euphoria from that haul has been tempered by news that a key manufacturing partner, SkyWater Technology, is being acquired by archrival IonQ for $1.8 billion.

SkyWater had been a neutral supplier of superconducting chips for D-Wave, and its absorption by IonQ threatens to upend the company’s supply chain. While IonQ has pledged to continue servicing existing customers, the risk of cost increases, capacity constraints, or reduced priority over time is hard to ignore. D-Wave may now need to scramble to qualify alternative fabrication partners, a process that could drain both time and capital.

Against that backdrop, Wall Street’s expectations for the quarter are subdued. Analysts project revenue of roughly $4.1 million, a steep drop from the $15 million reported in the same period last year. The per-share loss is seen widening to $0.10. Such swings are typical in the quantum-computing industry, where big-ticket sales are lumpy and revenue is recognized only after delivery — a reality that makes the timing of the January bookings’ conversion into cash the central question for investors.

The analyst community remains divided on the stock. The average price target sits near $32, well above the current level of $22.57, where the shares recently landed after an April rally of roughly 40% sparked by Nvidia’s announcement of new AI models that improve quantum-computing efficiency. Mizuho trimmed its target to $31 but maintains a buy rating, citing rising costs and competition. Northland Capital is more cautious, assigning a hold rating and a $22 target, while Zacks issues an outright sell, pointing to weak revenue visibility and persistent losses.

D-Wave is simultaneously executing a strategic transformation that could reshape its competitive positioning. In January it completed the $550 million acquisition of Quantum Circuits Inc., a move that marries the company’s existing quantum-annealing platform with gate-model technology featuring error correction. The first gate-model system is targeted for launch in 2026. Early proof-of-concept work with defense contractor Anduril Industries on missile-defense planning already delivered results ten times faster than classical methods.

The company is also overhauling its physical and capital base. Its headquarters will relocate from Palo Alto, California, to Boca Raton, Florida, by the end of 2026. On the financial side, D-Wave’s outstanding share count ballooned 67% over the past year, and a further $330 million capital raise was announced in January. Insider sales by the CFO and other executives have added to the pressure on the stock, which has been unable to hold gains despite a gross margin of 83%.

Management will face a packed calendar in the weeks ahead. Tuesday’s conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET is the first of six investor presentations leading up to a dedicated Capital Markets Day on June 1 at the New York Stock Exchange. At that event, executives are expected to lay out the full details of the dual-platform strategy that will combine annealing and gate-model systems.

The immediate demands on the earnings call are clear: provide a credible timeline for converting the January bookings into recognized revenue, update investors on the SkyWater contingency plan, and demonstrate that the gate-model roadmap remains on track despite the supply-chain disruption. With the stock already down year-to-date, D-Wave has a narrow window to reassure the market that its growth story is intact — before the threats from its own supply chain become a reality.