D-Wave Quantum’s Commercial Push Gains Shape as Bookings Surge but Revenue Remains Elusive

D-Wave targets $100-120M annual cloud revenue but Q1 revenue fell 81% to $2.9M. Q1 bookings surged to $33.4M. Analysts raise price targets despite stock drop.

D-Wave Quantum laid out a $100 million to $120 million annual cloud-revenue capacity at its first investor day in New York, a figure that underscores the company’s ambition to scale its quantum-services business. Yet the stark reality of the first-quarter numbers — just $2.9 million in revenue, down 81% from the prior year’s $15.0 million — kept the stock under pressure. In Frankfurt trading, shares shed around 8% to €23.67, despite having gained roughly 33% over the past month.

The revenue collapse is largely a base-effect story: a large annealing-system sale in early 2025 created a tough comparison. But that does little to ease the market’s scrutiny. The real momentum lies in the bookings pipeline, which exploded to $33.4 million in Q1 from a mere $1.6 million a year earlier. Two mega-deals dominated: a $20 million system purchase by Florida Atlantic University and a two-year $10 million cloud contract with an undisclosed Fortune 100 company. As of March 31, D-Wave’s remaining performance obligations stood at $42.4 million, with roughly 54% expected to convert into revenue over the next twelve months.

The investor day also gave analysts a clearer picture of the customer base. D-Wave named 26 publicly disclosed clients from the past 18 months, including Anduril Industries, AT&T, BASF, Boeing, Pfizer, NTT Docomo and the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center. To support that pipeline, the company has bulked up its sales force: quota-carrying sales staff grew 220% over the same period, while the technical solutions team expanded 129%.

Costs, however, are climbing fast. Operating expenses hit $56.5 million in Q1, more than double the year-ago level, partly due to $9.1 million in one-time costs from the $250 million acquisition of Quantum Circuits Inc. in January. The net loss widened to $18.4 million. Still, liquidity remains robust at $588.4 million in cash and marketable securities, providing ample runway for the company’s dual-platform strategy — annealing and gate-model quantum computing.

On the margin front, D-Wave provided its first formal targets, offering investors a framework to evaluate future quarters. Quantum Computing-as-a-Service is expected to deliver a gross margin of 65% to 75%, Professional Services between 40% and 50%, and Quantum Computing Systems between 75% and 90%. The capital intensity is relatively low: an annealing production system costs about $2 million and can be built and calibrated in under four months, giving D-Wave the flexibility to scale capacity quickly.

Analysts responded positively to the investor day presentation. B. Riley Securities raised its price target to $40 on June 2, reiterating a buy rating, while Roth Capital lifted its target to $40 from $30. Stifel held its target at $35, noting that the long-term narrative is strengthened but short-term estimates remain unchanged. Despite these endorsements, the stock still trades 38.5% below its 52-week high of €38.48, and sits nearly 35% above its 50-day moving average — a sign of both optimism and lingering caution.

Additional tailwinds come from Washington. D-Wave is in line to receive $100 million from the U.S. Department of Commerce under the CHIPS and Science Act, in exchange for issuing an equivalent amount of shares. TD Cowen counts the company alongside Rigetti Computing and GlobalFoundries among the biggest beneficiaries of a broader ~$2 billion federal quantum-computing funding program.

Looking ahead, D-Wave will host its “Qubits Europe 2026” conference in London on June 18, where customers, partners and researchers are expected to showcase real-world applications. The event will serve as a key test of whether the record bookings can translate into sustainable revenue — the defining challenge for the second half of the year.