D-Wave Quantum's $42 Million Backlog Offers Hope, but June's Events Will Determine the Stock's Next Move

D-Wave's revenue plunged 81% to $2.86M, yet new bookings hit $33.4M and backlog exceeds $42M. With shares oversold and two critical events in June, investors await clarity on execution.

D-Wave Quantum is heading into a pivotal June with a staggering divergence in its accounts. The company's order book has swollen to record levels, yet its revenue has cratered, leaving investors to weigh whether the future will arrive quickly enough to justify the current share price.

The quantum computing specialist saw first-quarter revenue slump 81% year over year to just $2.86 million, a far cry from the $15 million reported in the same period last year. The net loss came in at $18.36 million, though that figure actually beat some Street estimates. The market's reaction was swift: shares shed nearly 10% in the session following the release, settling at €17.48.

To dig beneath the top-line disappointment, however, is to find a vastly different story. New bookings hit a record $33.4 million in the quarter, more than ten times the revenue figure. D-Wave's backlog of unsatisfied performance obligations has ballooned past $42 million — a sum that already exceeds the total revenue the company expects to generate across all of 2025.

Two massive contracts are driving the surge. A $20 million deal with Florida Atlantic University for an Advantage2 quantum system accounts for the bulk, while a $10 million cloud services agreement with an unnamed Fortune 100 company adds further ballast. These orders are now sitting on the books but have yet to translate into recognized revenue, creating a glaring temporal mismatch that will test management's execution.

Analysts are split on how to value the dichotomy. Mizuho has trimmed its price target to $29, and Canaccord cut to $41, but Wedbush maintained its buy rating. No analyst currently recommends selling the stock, and the consensus remains constructive on the long-term opportunity. Simply Wall St, a separate research firm, pegs fair value at $38.54 — implying roughly 89% upside from current levels in euro terms. The shares have lost about 27% since the start of 2025 and sit 55% below their 52-week high of €38.48. The relative strength index stands at 34.9, suggesting an oversold condition.

D-Wave is not sitting idle. It completed the integration of Quantum Circuits, a move that should tighten the link between hardware and software as part of a dual-platform strategy. The company is targeting 100 logical qubits by 2032, a milestone that would mark a major leap in computational capability. Management also points to a cash pile of $588 million, which it believes will fund operations until profitability is achieved. The 2028 revenue target remains $122.5 million — a figure that will require converting those record orders into cash faster than the current pace suggests.

The coming weeks offer two critical opportunities for D-Wave to make its case. On June 1, the company will hold its first-ever investor day at the New York Stock Exchange, where executives are expected to defend the roadmap and articulate how the backlog will unwind. Then on June 18, a major user conference in London will showcase real-world applications, giving the market concrete evidence of commercial traction.

The broader quantum sector has been uneven. IonQ jumped 16% on the back of a DARPA contract under the HARQ initiative, while newly listed Xanadu posted revenue of $2.8 million — quadruple the prior year — yet saw its stock close 10% lower, a reminder that the market is punishing even positive surprises when profitability remains elusive.

For D-Wave, the months ahead will determine how quickly its $42 million backlog can be converted into recognized revenue. That gulf between orders and cash is the single most important variable on the path to the 2028 target. June's events will either validate the bullish thesis or deepen the skepticism that has dogged the stock.