D-Wave Quantum Faces Pivotal Earnings Release Amid Sector Weakness

D-Wave Quantum's earnings report follows a 60% stock drop. Analysts forecast strong revenue growth but a loss per share. New contracts and European competition shape the outlook.

All eyes are on D-Wave Quantum this week as the company prepares to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results. The report, scheduled for release before U.S. markets open on Thursday, arrives during one of the busiest earnings weeks of the quarter and against a backdrop of significant pressure on the company's share price.

Pre-Earnings Share Price Decline

The stock has experienced a substantial downturn in recent months. Since reaching a peak above $46 in October 2025, D-Wave's equity has plummeted approximately 60%. The selling pressure is not isolated to this single company but reflects broader weakness across the quantum computing sector. Recent data shows the stock fell 8.2% over the past seven days and 29.5% over the last 30 days. Since the beginning of the year, shares have declined 35.8%, with a recent closing price of $18.82 and an intraday low touching $17.82.

Divergent Analyst Expectations for Q4

Market experts have published slightly varying forecasts for the quarterly performance. According to Zacks, revenue is estimated at $4.14 million, which would represent year-over-year growth of 79.1%, alongside a projected loss per share of $0.05. MarketBeat aligns on the loss per share at -$0.05 but anticipates lower revenue of $3.74 million. A third source, Investing.com, models a slightly higher loss of -$0.062 per share and revenue of $3.72 million.

For the full fiscal year 2025, Zacks projects revenue of approximately $25.6 million, equating to an increase of 194.1% compared to the prior year.

These figures follow a third-quarter report where D-Wave posted revenue of $3.74 million, a 100% annual increase, and an adjusted loss per share of $0.05. That result surpassed the consensus estimate, which had anticipated a loss of $0.07 per share. For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported $21.8 million in revenue, a surge of 235%. Additionally, Q3 saw a GAAP gross margin of 71.4% and the company reported a cash position of $836.2 million.

Competitive Landscape and Corporate Developments

The competitive environment is intensifying, particularly from Europe. Finnish firm IQM Quantum Computers announced a SPAC merger with Real Asset Acquisition Corp., a deal that values IQM at roughly $1.8 billion. IQM cited at least $35 million in unaudited 2025 revenue and more than $100 million in "bookings visibility"—figures that would exceed D-Wave's expected annual revenue. The planned listing on a major U.S. exchange is likely to increase competitive pressure among publicly traded quantum computing providers.

Concurrently, D-Wave has highlighted its own recent contract momentum. Notable agreements include a $20 million order from Florida Atlantic University for an Advantage2 system, a two-year, $10 million Quantum-Computing-as-a-Service (QCaaS) contract with a Fortune 100 company, and a multi-year €10 million contract with the Italian government and Q-Alliance. The company has also finalized the $550 million acquisition of Quantum Circuits Inc., expanding its offerings into gate-model quantum computing. Furthermore, in February, D-Wave joined IBM and several universities as a founding member of the Southeastern Quantum Collaborative.

Valuation Concerns and Insider Activity

A persistent concern for investors is the company's valuation. Analysis indicates the stock trades at approximately 299 times revenue. MarketBeat also reported significant insider selling activity over the past 90 days, with roughly 1.27 million shares sold for a total value of about $36.15 million. This reduced insider ownership to 3.20%. Institutional investors currently hold approximately 42.47% of the company's shares.

The critical question is what D-Wave must deliver on Thursday to restore market confidence. Key focus areas will likely include guidance on the future revenue trajectory, demand for its QCaaS business, and progress in integrating the Quantum Circuits acquisition. This is especially pertinent given the severe stock price decline and the emergence of a new, potentially public, European competitor.