CureVac Shares Under Pressure Following Index Exclusion and Revenue Normalization

CureVac NL0015436031

The stock of mRNA specialist CureVac is navigating a transitional period, with its share price reflecting the shift. A temporary surge fueled by partnership payments from GSK has given way to a more sobering reality: significantly lower revenues, removal from a major biotechnology index, and persistent selling pressure. The market is now tasked with evaluating the company's fundamentals beyond one-off financial effects.

The company's third-quarter 2025 results underscore this transition. While the year-on-year comparisons appear stark, they are heavily distorted by exceptional items from the prior year.

• Revenue for Q3 2025 came in at €54.1 million, representing an 89% decline from the €493.9 million reported in the same quarter of 2024.
• Earnings per share were €1.21, down from €1.50 in Q3 2024.

This dramatic revenue contraction was widely anticipated by professional investors. The 2024 figures were inflated by substantial one-time payments linked to the collaboration with GSK. Now that these "sugar rush" effects have passed, the focus turns to the sustainability of the business model without such windfalls. Despite the top-line decline, disciplined cost control and ongoing milestone payments have allowed the firm to remain operationally profitable.

Technical Selling Weighs on Share Price Performance

Compounding the reaction to the financials is a significant technical overhang. The most immediate pressure stems from CureVac's exclusion from the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index, which took effect on December 4.

This triggered mandatory selling by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other passive investment vehicles that track the index. The resulting technical selling volume has created a surplus of shares on the market, capping any recovery momentum irrespective of the company's underlying business developments.

The impact is visible in the charts: the share price, near €3.50, trades well below its 50- and 100-day moving averages. It has declined nearly 20% over the past week and approximately 23% over the last 30 days. However, it remains notably above its 52-week low from April, highlighting the stock's inherently volatile nature.

Strategic Shift Towards Pipeline Execution

The current share price trajectory is best understood within the context of CureVac's strategic repositioning. In late 2024, the company restructured its agreement with GSK, securing a strong capital base that management states funds operations into 2028.

With large, irregular payments now in the rearview mirror, the company's development pipeline takes center stage. The era of "surprise gains" providing intermittent support for the share price is over, replaced by a sober focus on capital preservation and clinical execution. Success in planned trial advancements, particularly in oncology with programs like CVGBM for glioblastoma, is now a critical value driver.

Market Outlook and Key Upcoming Catalysts

From a chart perspective, establishing stability around current support levels is crucial. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of approximately 38 indicates a weak but not yet extremely oversold condition. The significant gap of over 20% below the 50-day moving average continues to paint a picture of a stock under pressure.

Many market strategists expect the technical selling pressure from index funds to gradually subside. When it does, valuation may be more closely tied to the company's solid cash position and reduced cash burn following cost-saving measures implemented in early 2025.

Looking ahead, the next major catalysts are likely to be clinical data readouts expected in the first half of 2026. Until then, CureVac's shares are anticipated to trade within a range, reacting sensitively to pipeline updates and broader sentiment in the biotech sector. The longer-term direction hinges on whether upcoming study data can successfully demonstrate the transition from partnership-derived payments to tangible, intrinsic value from its development portfolio.