CureVac’s Final Chapter: Stock Dynamics Shift as BioNTech Acquisition Nears Completion

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The independent trading story of CureVac's shares is drawing to a definitive close. With shareholder approval for the BioNTech acquisition now secured, the stock's price action has entered a distinct phase dominated by technical and procedural factors rather than company-specific developments. The market's attention is firmly fixed on the mechanics of the share exchange offer, with recent price movements reflecting the winding down of speculative activity.

The backdrop is clear: CureVac shareholders voted overwhelmingly in favor of the takeover by BioNTech on November 25, 2025, with more than 99.16% approval. The initial acceptance period for the exchange offer concluded on December 3. We are now in the "Subsequent Offering Period," a legally mandated window of at least ten trading days that allows remaining shareholders to tender their shares under the same terms. This period serves as a final bridge of liquidity before the stock is delisted and CureVac is fully integrated into BioNTech.

As more shares are tendered, the freely tradable float diminishes. This reduction in available shares typically leads to lower trading volumes but can amplify short-term price swings, as even modest orders exert a larger influence on the price. The current environment of weaker prices, thinning liquidity, and sometimes wider bid-ask spreads fits this end-stage pattern perfectly.

Technical Pressure and Declining Liquidity Take Center Stage

Recent weakness in the share price is part of a broader downtrend. The stock is down approximately 10% over the past week and nearly 14% over the last 30 days. While it remains notably above its April low, it trades about 19% below its 52-week high—a chart picture consistent with the fading momentum often seen in the final stages of an acquisition.

The driving forces behind current volatility are purely technical:

• Linkage to BioNTech: The fixed exchange ratio of 0.05363 BioNTech American Depositary Shares (ADS) for each CureVac share fundamentally tethers CureVac's value to the daily movements of BioNTech's stock. Analysts view the recent decline largely as a function of this linkage and the evaporating liquidity.
• Technical Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently touched 29, signaling deeply oversold conditions, before recovering slightly to 37.9. The stock continues to trade below its key 50-day and 100-day moving averages, underscoring persistent technical pressure.
• Arbitrage Activity: Minor discrepancies between CureVac's market price and the implied value of the BioNTech exchange offer can create opportunities for arbitrage traders. These activities may cause selective spikes in volume without altering the fundamental valuation.

The New Drivers of Share Price Action

For remaining shareholders, the focus has completely shifted from CureVac's operational performance to the arithmetic of the exchange offer. Three factors now dictate price movements:

1. BioNTech's Share Performance
   With the exchange ratio locked, the daily fluctuation in BioNTech's share price directly determines the theoretical value of a CureVac holding. Company-specific news from CureVac itself has become virtually irrelevant to its stock price.

2. The Shrinking Float
   Each block of tendered shares reduces the pool of stock available for open-market trading. This naturally leads to more erratic price patterns and wider spreads, independent of any new information.

3. Arbitrage Gaps
   Temporary deviations between the market price and the calculated exchange value attract specialized traders, whose actions can inject volatility into an otherwise dwindling market.

The speculative narrative of a standalone turnaround for CureVac has effectively concluded. The investment thesis is now entirely centered on its future as a BioNTech subsidiary and the concrete value of the share exchange.

Conclusion: A Transaction in Its Final Stages

CureVac's equity is navigating a clear transition. The strategic decision is made, the deal is approved, and the ongoing subsequent offering period marks the final countdown before delisting and full integration. The present price weakness is best explained by technical selling pressure, declining liquidity, and the deterministic link to BioNTech's stock—not by any new fundamental insights into CureVac. Once this additional offering period closes and the remaining administrative steps are finalized, CureVac's independent trading history will conclude, its value becoming fully subsumed within the market valuation of BioNTech.