CureVac’s Final Chapter: Navigating the BioNTech Takeover

CureVac NL0015436031

The curtain is falling on CureVac's independent stock market listing. The company's shares are now almost exclusively driven by the mechanics of its impending acquisition by BioNTech, with standalone corporate developments fading into irrelevance. For remaining shareholders, the central focus has narrowed to a single technical issue: the precise procedure for exchanging their holdings.

The takeover process has entered its final implementation phase, having surpassed the critical 80% acceptance threshold. Consequently, the market now treats CureVac stock as a derivative instrument, its value pegged directly to BioNTech's share price through a fixed exchange ratio. This dynamic has produced several distinct market effects.

• Direct Linkage to BioNTech: CureVac's theoretical value is now calculated based on BioNTech's stock performance. Any independent investment thesis related to CureVac's own pipeline or strategy has effectively vanished from the pricing equation.
• Declining Market Liquidity: As more shares are tendered to the offer, the freely tradable float continues to shrink. This reduction in liquidity increases the stock's vulnerability to downward price movements.
• Arbitrage Exit: Hedge funds and other arbitrage investors, who had positioned themselves to profit from the gap between the offer price and the market price, are unwinding their positions as the deal's completion nears. Their departure removes a significant source of consistent demand from the market.

Chart Weakness Reflects Deal Timeline, Not Operations

Recent trading paints a clear picture of this final phase. The share price, closing at 3.52 euros, currently trades approximately 27% below its 52-week high, underscoring persistent selling pressure.

From a technical analysis perspective, a key breakdown has already occurred. The stock fell below its 200-day moving average—a development many chart-based investors interpret as a sell signal—confirming a broader downward trend. This price action is no longer tethered to CureVac's operational outlook but is instead wholly subordinate to the takeover's technical execution.

The Countdown to Delisting

For current shareholders, the "Subsequent Offering Period" represents the last structured window for an orderly exit via the takeover bid. The market is now pricing in a high probability of a subsequent delisting or a squeeze-out of remaining minority holders.

As a result, any premium previously attached to the potential of CureVac's independent research pipeline has evaporated. The company's future is fully priced as an integrated component of BioNTech. The current valuation signals that the market anticipates no material value beyond the terms of the acquisition itself.

The focus for remaining equity holders has therefore shifted entirely. Strategic vision, product development, and research milestones are no longer relevant. Instead, attention is fixed solely on the procedural details of the share exchange and the anticipated withdrawal of CureVac's listing from the public market.