CSG Shares Hit Fresh Record Low Despite €17 Billion Backlog and Eurosatory Display

Czechoslovak Group shares plunge 44% below IPO price to €13.91, even as revenue rises 14% and backlog hits €17 billion. All ten analysts rate it a buy with a €32 target, but market scepticism persists ahead of half-year results on 7 August.

The gap between operational performance and market sentiment for Czechoslovak Group (CSG) has rarely been wider. On Monday, the stock sank to a fresh all-time low of €13.91, a staggering 44% below its €25 IPO price from January. By Tuesday, a fractional recovery to €14.07 did little to alter the picture — the shares remain within three percent of their 52-week trough struck on 4 May.

The slide comes as the company stages one of the largest exhibits at the Eurosatory defence fair in Paris, unveiling world premieres including the Tadeas 4x4 command variant and the RL-3000 primary radar system. The Czech conglomerate’s sprawling stand — the biggest from any Czech participant — also features heavy logistics trucks, compact turbojet engines for cruise missiles and the new CFL-120 Karpat medium tank, developed jointly with Turkey’s FNSS. Yet the firepower on the show floor has done nothing to halt the selling pressure in Amsterdam.

Analysts, by contrast, remain unwavering in their optimism. All ten covering the stock rate it a buy, with a consensus price target of €32.05 and a high-end target of €42. JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank reiterated their positive calls as recently as late May. The disconnect between these forecasts and the market price — now less than half the average target — underscores the depth of investor scepticism.

Operationally, the group is firing on all cylinders. First-quarter revenue climbed nearly 14% to just over €1.5 billion, while operating profit matched that pace at €372 million. The order backlog has reached a record €17 billion, and management is currently negotiating a further €27 billion worth of potential deals. Early June brought fresh contracts from two NATO countries for fuze systems, adding to a pipeline that shows no sign of slowing. The full-year guidance remains intact: revenue of up to €7.6 billion and an operating margin around 25%.

The stock’s descent has been brutal. From the 52-week high of €36.05 touched shortly after January’s IPO, the shares have lost roughly 61% of their value. The 30-day decline stands at nearly 14%, and the current price is more than 23% below the 50-day moving average of €18.38. The relative strength index sits at 30.3, deep in oversold territory. Annualised volatility above 62% signals the market is still struggling to assign a stable valuation to the defence group.

All eyes now turn to 7 August, when CSG publishes half-year results. The management must prove it can convert the record backlog into hard profit quickly enough to close the yawning gap between the share price and analyst expectations. Until then, the parade of new hardware in Paris is unlikely to be enough to turn the stock around.