CSG’s Post-IPO Nightmare Deepens as Short-Seller Attack Sends Shares to Record Lows

Czech ammunition maker CSG N.V. hits all-time low after Hunterbrook Media questions production claims, but analysts remain bullish with €35.40 median target.

The European defence sector’s hottest debut has turned into one of its most painful post-IPO slides. CSG N.V., the Czech ammunition maker that raised €3.8 billion in January in Europe’s largest military initial public offering, saw its stock plunge to a fresh all-time low on Monday after a scathing report from a US-based short seller.

Hunterbrook Media, the media arm of hedge fund Hunterbrook Capital, published an article questioning the group’s production claims and labelling CSG a “munitions trading house” rather than the next Rheinmetall. The attack was timed to coincide with pre-existing short positions. The stock lost more than a quarter of its value intraday before closing roughly 14% lower at around €16 — a level that marks both a 52-week trough and a decline of more than 50% from its post-IPO peak of €35.50.

CSG fired back the same day, dismissing the allegations as “inaccurate, selectively interpreted and misleadingly presented”. The company insisted its prospectus and all subsequent disclosures were complete, correct and compliant with legal requirements.

The damage, however, compounds a broader malaise. The stock first dipped below its €25 IPO price in late March and has now lost roughly 51% from its 52-week high of €33.81. European defence equities broadly have come under pressure as investors rotate out of the sector and rising sovereign debt levels raise questions about long-term military budgets. For a newly listed name like CSG, the volatility has been especially brutal.

Yet the operating picture tells a starkly different story. Revenue surged nearly 72% in 2025 to €6.7 billion, with an operating margin of 24.1%. The order backlog has swelled to €42 billion — representing several years of secured revenue. Management has guided for 2026 sales of between €7.4 billion and €7.6 billion, with margins of 24% to 25%.

Every single analyst covering CSG — all ten of them — rates the stock a buy. The median price target of €35.40 implies more than a doubling from current levels. J.P. Morgan initiated coverage with an “Overweight” rating and a €40 target, highlighting CSG’s position as the world’s largest manufacturer of small-calibre ammunition and Europe’s second-largest supplier of medium and large calibres. The bank noted that the negotiated pipeline stood at €18 billion on top of the existing backlog.

Two concrete catalysts could determine whether the market’s pessimism is overdone. On May 19, CSG will publish its first quarterly report as a publicly traded company. If it can demonstrate that its high operating margin is holding up despite headwinds, that could help bridge the gap between strong fundamentals and a battered share price. Around the same time, the company expects regulatory approval for its acquisition of a 49% stake in Hirtenberger Defence Systems from Hungary’s 4iG Group — a deal that strengthens its mortar ammunition portfolio and marks its first footprint in Austria.

Whether management’s rebuttal of the short-seller report will be enough to restore investor confidence depends on how quickly CSG can produce concrete evidence backing its production figures. The coming weeks will show whether Monday’s rout was an overreaction — or whether Hunterbrook Capital identified a genuine vulnerability in Europe’s newest defence champion.