Costco’s December Sales in Focus as Growth Trajectory Slows

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All eyes are on Costco Wholesale Corporation as the market awaits the release of its December sales figures. Analysts anticipate a significant deceleration in growth compared to the prior year, raising questions about whether this is a temporary normalization or indicative of broader pressure on e-commerce trends. This analysis explores the drivers behind the forecasts and potential market implications.

Despite the muted near-term sales outlook, the retailer's shares recently received a boost from Mizuho Securities. The firm upgraded its rating from "Hold" to "Outperform" and raised its price target from $950 to $1,000. Mizuho's analysts suggest recent share price weakness has reset expectations and note that many new warehouse openings are "fill-ins" in existing markets, signaling sustained demand. They also highlight that Executive membership growth is outpacing total membership growth, pointing to stable fee income.

However, the stock trades at a significant premium. Its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 41.2 stands well above the industry average of 29.5. This lofty valuation keeps some analysts cautious. Firms like Roth/MKM maintain a skeptical stance, citing pressure on membership metrics and the high entry price for the equity.

Key Data Points:
* Current Share Price: €762.40
* Distance from 52-Week High: −26.0%
* Forward P/E Ratio: ~41.2

December Sales Expectations: A Detailed Look

Market researchers at Telsey Advisory Group project a 2.2% increase in comparable-store sales for December across the entire company. This would mark a sharp slowdown from the 7.4% growth recorded in the same month last year. Excluding the volatility from gasoline prices and foreign exchange, core merchandise sales are estimated to have risen by only about 2.0%.

Regional performance is expected to vary. In the United States, Telsey forecasts growth of just 1.0% (ex-gasoline), while Canada appears more robust at roughly 4.0%. Other international regions are projected to lead with an estimated 5.0% gain. A critical component is customer traffic: estimates point to a mere 0.5% increase, a steep drop from the 5.5% rise seen in December of the previous year. Consequently, sales gains are primarily expected to be driven by a higher average transaction value (+1.7%), partly a result of inflationary and pricing effects.

In essence, growth is becoming more reliant on customers spending more per visit rather than an expanding shopper base, which could cap potential if traffic does not reaccelerate.

E-Commerce Momentum and Strategic Investments

A notable area of focus is the digital business. After a strong first quarter where digitally-influenced comparable sales jumped 20.5%, the estimate for December points to a rise of only about +5.0%. This compares to a surge of +34.4% in December 2024. Investors are weighing whether this represents a temporary normalization following exceptional prior-year numbers or the beginning of a more sustained moderation in online momentum.

To bolster its digital capabilities, Costco is investing in logistics infrastructure. A new distribution center in Port St. Lucie is scheduled to become operational in March 2026. The clear objective is to enhance e-commerce efficiency and enable faster same-day delivery. Successful integration of this facility could strengthen the membership model and improve competitiveness against other digital retailers.

Market Outlook for Today's Release

The December sales results are scheduled for publication after the U.S. market closes today (1:15 p.m. PT). If the comparable sales figure lands near the 2.2% estimate, it will likely confirm recently tempered expectations and result in only a moderate share price reaction. A significant beat, particularly driven by surprisingly strong online sales, could bolster the case for higher price targets. Conversely, if both customer traffic and digital sales prove weak, it may increase pressure on the stock given its elevated valuation.

(Published: Today, January 7, 2026.)