Commerzbank Stock Tightens Grip on Decade Highs After Prosecutor Rejects Manipulation Claim

Frankfurt prosecutors clear UniCredit of market manipulation in Commerzbank takeover; Italian lender now holds 49.65% voting stake. Commerzbank overhauls card business, shares near 10-year high.

Frankfurt prosecutors have cleared UniCredit of market-manipulation allegations tied to its takeover bid for Commerzbank, removing one layer of legal uncertainty as the Italian lender’s grip on Germany’s second-largest bank tightens. The decision, handed down on 11 July 2026, dismissed a criminal complaint filed by Commerzbank employees who accused UniCredit of inflating the acceptance rate of its exchange offer through stock-lending arrangements.

The complaint centred on the final tender tally announced by UniCredit after the extended deadline on 3 July. The Italian bank reported that 17.6% of Commerzbank shares had been tendered into its offer. Commerzbank’s management countered that fewer than 2% of those shares came from independent institutional or retail investors, arguing that the bulk were lent by banks and entities closely tied to UniCredit. The prosecutors found insufficient evidence to pursue charges, but the dispute underscored the lingering tension between the two sides.

UniCredit now controls 47.59% of Commerzbank’s capital, and because the German lender holds its own shares without voting rights, the Italian group’s voting stake already reaches 49.65%. That is just shy of the 50% threshold required to formally exercise control, which hinges on approval from the European Central Bank and EU competition authorities. The 75% supermajority needed for a full merger remains out of reach.

While the takeover saga plays out in regulatory corridors, Chief Executive Bettina Orlopp is pressing ahead with an operational overhaul designed to bolster Commerzbank’s independence. The bank is shifting its card business to a Visa Classic standard, phasing out Mastercard options for standard customers. Clients who want to keep a Mastercard Classic will need to upgrade to a premium account costing €12.90 a month. The move, rooted in a partnership signed with Visa in February 2025, also gives Commerzbank the right to cancel existing card contracts without customer consent. Analysts see the strategy as a margin-boosting step aligned with Orlopp’s “Momentum 2030” plan, which targets a net profit of at least €3.4 billion for 2026 and a payout ratio of 50% or more of net income as long as no formal takeover is completed.

Investors have so far shrugged off the takeover friction and focused on the bank’s improving fundamentals. The stock closed Friday at €38.67, up 2.41% on the day, bringing its one-month gain to 7.06% and its twelve-month advance to 33.34%. With a market capitalisation of €41.56 billion, the shares are now just 0.46% below the 52-week high of €38.85 set on 19 June — a level that also marks a ten-year peak. The 50-day moving average at €36.89 provides a 4.84% cushion, while the 200-day line at €34.40 underscores the longer-term uptrend. The relative strength index of 61.7 suggests further upside potential without signalling overbought conditions.

The immediate resistance sits at €38.85. A decisive break above that level would mark a new 52-week high and could open the path for additional gains, especially as the DAX index tests the 26,000-point barrier. On the downside, the €37.00 area and the 50-day average offer initial support. Until Commerzbank’s second-quarter results are released on 6 August, external catalysts — such as export data and regulatory signals from the ECB — are likely to drive the narrative. For now, the stock’s technical posture remains firmly bullish, even as the political chess match between Frankfurt and Milan shows no sign of resolution.