Commerzbank Stock Tests €36.50 Resistance as Governance Storm and 3,000 Job Cuts Converge

Commerzbank nears €36.50 resistance amid UniCredit takeover; ex-CEO penalized for undisclosed meeting; bank unveils AI investments and job cuts.

Commerzbank shares are navigating a pivotal moment on the charts, with the price closing Friday at €36.16 – just 34 cents shy of the €36.50 resistance that could trigger a fresh rally. The level is all the more critical because it sits comfortably above UniCredit’s indicative offer value of €34.56, a gap that underscores the market’s cool reception to the Italian lender’s hostile approach. A daily close above €36.50 would open the door to targets at €37.26 and €38.40, with a longer-term objective of €45.95, while any slip below the support at €34.85 risks a correction down to €31.74 or even €28.15.

The annual general meeting in Wiesbaden on 20 May handed management a massive vote of confidence – board discharge approvals ranged from 99.58% to 99.64%, and the compensation report was backed by 91.28% of shareholders. Yet the same meeting exposed a fresh governance embarrassment: former CEO Manfred Knof lost 30% of his variable compensation for fiscal 2024 because he failed to inform the board about a September 2024 meeting with UniCredit chief Andrea Orcel. The encounter, which Orcel allegedly turned up to unannounced at Knof’s home, occurred at a time when UniCredit had just disclosed its initial stake in Commerzbank and Orcel was publicly courting a takeover. Knof later claimed the meeting yielded no new information and that he saw no need to notify management, but the supervisory board, led by Jens Weidmann, deemed it a breach of duty.

The Knof affair is more than an internal disciplinary matter – it signals how deeply the UniCredit conflict has penetrated the bank’s governance. Since the meeting, UniCredit has built a stake of nearly 30% alongside additional financial instruments and tabled an offer for the outstanding shares. Commerzbank’s board, having examined the offer document, remains firmly opposed, arguing that both the premium and the strategic rationale are inadequate. The stock’s persistent trade above the offer price supports that stance.

Management is not simply defending the status quo. The bank has unveiled its “Momentum 2030” plan, aiming to push the return on tangible equity to 21% and net profit to €5.9 billion by the end of the decade. A core driver is artificial intelligence: Commerzbank plans cumulative AI investments of around €600 million between 2026 and 2030, expecting the technology to contribute roughly €500 million annually from 2030 onwards and free up about 10% of operational capacity. Those efficiency ambitions come with a sharper cost-cutting edge – an additional 3,000 full-time roles will be eliminated, on top of the 3,900 job cuts already announced in February 2025.

The takeover battle remains largely one-sided. In the first interim tally on 19 May, only 0.02% of Commerzbank shares had been tendered. UniCredit has extended the acceptance period, likely until 3 July 2026, but expects regulatory approvals to drag into 2027. Meanwhile, a quiet shift in the bank’s own US equity portfolio saw Microsoft overtake Alphabet A as its largest American holding, with a 5.96% weighting versus Alphabet’s 5.60% as of 31 March 2026. The US portfolio was valued at $4.78 billion, with Apple, Chevron and Cisco rounding out the top five.

From a technical perspective, the stock is priced for a decisive move. The relative strength index sits at 79.6, indicating the shares are heavily overbought on a monthly horizon but also reflecting the powerful momentum behind the current move – Commerzbank has gained 6.54% over the past month. Whether the €36.50 resistance gives way or holds firm will likely set the tone for the bank’s next chapter, tangled as it is between a determined suitor, an ambitious self-help plan and the lingering fallout from a former CEO’s private meeting.