Commerzbank Stock Stays Close to Year High as Frankfurt Probe Adds Twist to UniCredit Pursuit

Frankfurt prosecutors investigate possible market manipulation in UniCredit's Commerzbank takeover bid, but shares hold near 52-week high on strong earnings and raised outlook.

Frankfurt prosecutors have opened a preliminary inquiry into possible market manipulation linked to UniCredit’s takeover bid for Commerzbank, yet the German lender’s shares are clinging to their 52-week peak. The stock traded at €38.26 on Thursday, barely a dozen cents below the high of €38.38 reached earlier this week. The investigation, triggered by unusual patterns during the acceptance period for UniCredit’s exchange offer, has so far uncovered no misconduct.

The contradiction between regulatory scrutiny and share-price strength captures the dual nature of Commerzbank’s current position. On one hand, the battle for control is escalating. UniCredit now controls 37.68% of Commerzbank’s capital directly and, when including derivatives positions, could potentially hold sway over 54.09%. Berlin has formally rejected the Italian bank’s advance, with the government holding onto its 12% stake and publicly backing Commerzbank’s independence.

On the other hand, Commerzbank’s own operating performance is giving investors reasons to look past the takeover noise. Management raised its outlook after a strong start to the year and unveiled the “Momentum 2030” strategy, targeting a return on equity of 17% by 2028 and 21% by 2030. Net income is projected to reach €4.6 billion in 2028 and €5.9 billion by the end of the decade, with revenue expanding to €16.8 billion at a 6% annual clip.

CEO Bettina Orlopp is steering a course of job cuts and improved profitability — a defensive play that may also make a full takeover more expensive. The annual general meeting recently approved a dividend of €1.10 per share and authorized further share buybacks, reinforcing the bank’s commitment to returning excess capital to shareholders.

The stock has climbed 36% over the past twelve months and is 43% above its low from a year ago. Technical indicators show momentum is elevated but not overheated: the share price sits 12.7% above its 200-day moving average, and the relative strength index stands at 63.4. The 30-day volatility of 24% underlines that even a large bank can swing sharply in this environment.

Analyst sentiment remains broadly bullish. The consensus price target is just under €40, with the most optimistic forecasts reaching €45. Seven out of eight analysts covering the stock rate it a buy. “The market is pricing in a higher exit price,” one Frankfurt-based trader noted, “but the operating story is what keeps the bid above water.”

UniCredit’s own shares have rallied nearly 12% in the past week to €80.77, also near a 52-week high. The Italian lender is scheduled to publish the provisional results of its offer on Friday. A second acceptance window runs from June 20 to July 3 under unchanged terms. Commerzbank has accused UniCredit of misleading the market, pointing to evidence that many of the tendered shares came from UniCredit business partners such as Nomura rather than independent institutional investors.

The involvement of the state prosecutor and Commerzbank’s escalating criticism of the bid create fresh uncertainty for UniCredit. Whether the regulator BaFin steps in or UniCredit is forced to improve its terms will determine the next phase of this takeover poker. For now, Commerzbank’s shares are betting that operational momentum — not just takeover speculation — can sustain the run.

With a market capitalisation of €39.8 billion, the bank can no longer hide behind cheap valuations. The premium built into the stock demands concrete delivery on cost control and earnings growth. Any slippage would leave the shares vulnerable, but the combination of a credible independent strategy and the prospect of a higher offer is keeping buyers engaged.