Commerzbank Stock Hovers Just Below Record as Italian Giant Tightens Stake and Shifts Card Strategy

Commerzbank nears 52-week high as UniCredit holds 47.59% stake, criminal complaint dismissed, and bank shifts to Visa card ahead of Q2 earnings.

Commerzbank shares finished Friday at €38.67, a whisker off their 52-week high of €38.85 from June 19, after a week that saw UniCredit solidify its grip on the German lender, a criminal complaint fizzle out, and the bank accelerate a sweeping remake of its credit card business. The stock has gained 33.34% over the past twelve months, with the latest 2.41% daily move driven by a blend of takeover speculation and operational catalysts.

UniCredit now controls 47.59% of Commerzbank’s capital, representing 49.65% of voting rights once treasury shares are stripped out. The figure emerged after the Italian bank’s voluntary tender offer closed on July 3, during which it scooped up an additional 17.60% of the shares. The German government, which still holds 12.11%, continues to oppose a full takeover – as does Commerzbank’s management. Chief executive Bettina Orlopp has played down the size of the tender uptake, noting that less than a third of free-float shareholders accepted and that most were already affiliated with UniCredit. She has pressed the suitor for a clear strategic ultimatum.

Any further expansion of UniCredit’s position hinges on approval from the European Central Bank, a review expected to take months. Reaching the 75% threshold needed for a domination agreement or full merger remains a distant prospect. Meanwhile, a criminal complaint filed by Commerzbank employees – alleging that UniCredit artificially inflated acceptance rates – was thrown out by the Frankfurt public prosecutor’s office on July 11. Investigators found insufficient evidence to proceed, removing a potential legal blockade from the takeover path.

Away from the boardroom battle, Commerzbank is quietly reshaping one of its most visible consumer touchpoints: the credit card. The bank is pushing retail customers to switch from the classic Mastercard to a Visa Classic product, a move tied to a strategic partnership signed with Visa in February 2025. Holders who refuse the switch face a monthly surcharge of €12.90 on the Mastercard, and non-consenting customers risk having their card agreement terminated. The bank is also joining Visa Intelligent Commerce, an initiative involving over 30 European banks that uses AI agents and biometric authentication for automated purchases. On the digital euro front, Commerzbank is preparing its systems for integration by 2029, following a green light from the European Parliament on July 9 and a planned ECB pilot programme starting in 2027.

The stock’s recent rally has pushed its 14-day Relative Strength Index to 61.7 – comfortably in neutral territory, suggesting room for further upside without becoming overbought. Yet two looming milestones will test the sustainability of the momentum. On August 6, Commerzbank delivers its second-quarter earnings, an opportunity to show that the underlying business can hold its own amid the takeover noise. At the same time, a new regulatory headwind has emerged: since July, Germany has applied a 2% systemic risk buffer on commercial real estate loans, raising capital requirements for banks with that exposure and potentially squeezing the room for dividends or share buybacks.

The interplay between a determined suitor, an earnings deadline, and a shifting regulatory landscape means the next few weeks could well decide whether the stock finally breaches the €38.85 mark or struggles to sustain its recent gains.