Commerzbank Slashes 3,000 Roles in AI Offensive as Shareholders Prepare to Reject UniCredit’s Below-Market Bid

Commerzbank leverages AI and a €2.7bn capital return plan to resist UniCredit's offer, as shares trade 14% above the Italian lender's implied valuation.

Frankfurt’s Commerzbank is betting big on artificial intelligence to defend its independence. Chief executive Bettina Orlopp plans to cut around 3,000 positions, largely in IT and external call?centre operations, with automation picking up the slack. The technology’s productivity gains have exceeded internal expectations from a year ago, the bank says, and the cost savings underpin a long?term return?on?equity target of 21% by the end of the decade. The stock has rewarded the tough talk: it closed Friday at €36.15, a whopping 14% above the implied value of UniCredit’s all?share exchange offer of 0.485 of its own shares per Commerzbank share – currently worth roughly €31.

The yawning gap shows how little faith investors have in the Italian lender’s approach. On a 12?month view, the shares have climbed an impressive 40%. Technical signals also flash caution: the relative strength index stands at 83, deep in overbought territory. UniCredit already controls nearly 30% of Commerzbank’s equity, but the Frankfurt board has dug in, demanding a more attractive premium and a clear strategic plan before any talks can begin.

All eyes now turn to Wednesday’s annual general meeting in Wiesbaden. Shareholders will vote on a proposed dividend of €1.10 per share for the past financial year. If approved, the stock goes ex?dividend on Thursday, with payment scheduled for 26 May. Management is also seeking a fresh authorisation for share buybacks, part of a planned €2.7 billion capital return for the 2025 fiscal year – a figure the board uses as a central argument for staying independent.

Just before the AGM, the executive and supervisory boards are expected to publish their formal statement on UniCredit’s offer under Germany’s securities acquisition and takeover act. The document will contain a concrete recommendation, and the language is likely to harden the lines. Political backing has already arrived from Berlin: Chancellor Friedrich Merz has labelled UniCredit’s move “hostile and aggressive”, and the government has signalled its opposition to a takeover of the systemically important lender.

UniCredit’s offer, which includes no cash component, has been extended and now runs until 3 July 2026. The Italian group acknowledges that various regulatory hurdles mean a final completion is unlikely before 2027. For now, Commerzbank’s management is pressing ahead with its own transformation – betting that AI?driven efficiencies and record shareholder payouts will convince investors that the home team is worth far more than Milan is prepared to pay.