Commerzbank Shifts $4.78bn US Portfolio as UniCredit Edges Toward Effective Control

Commerzbank rotates $4.78B US equity portfolio, replacing Alphabet with a new tech leader, as UniCredit's stake hits 38.87%. Record earnings contrast with overbought RSI; July 3 deadline looms.

While Frankfurt’s boardroom drama with Milan plays out in public, the quieter work of portfolio management continues behind the scenes. Commerzbank has overhauled its US equity holdings in the first quarter, rotating a $4.78bn portfolio toward a new undisclosed technology leader that unseated Alphabet as the top position. The reshuffle signals that day-to-day operations are proceeding normally even as UniCredit tightens its grip on the lender’s capital structure.

The Italian giant disclosed on 26 May that it now controls 38.87% of Commerzbank, up sharply from 32.64%. The mix includes 26.77% held directly and 12.10% via total return swaps — a structure that allows UniCredit to amplify its influence without fully committing equity. With typical attendance rates at annual general meetings, this level of control could translate into a working majority at shareholder votes.

Commerzbank’s management is not ceding ground. Chief executive Bettina Orlopp has characterised the UniCredit overture as a “restructuring proposal” that offers shareholders no control premium and insufficient value. The board has formally recommended against tendering into the exchange offer, and with an acceptance deadline of 3 July, the clock is ticking on whether UniCredit will sweeten its terms or the bank will remain independent.

The independence case rests on strong numbers. Commerzbank posted a record operating profit of €4.5bn for the full year 2025, an 18% improvement. The momentum carried into the first quarter of 2026, with operating income hitting €1.36bn and earnings per share rising to €0.84 from €0.73 a year earlier. Management raised its full-year net profit guidance to at least €3.4bn and, on 8 May, unveiled updated financial targets stretching to 2030.

For the 2025 financial year, the bank is returning a total of €2.7bn to shareholders, including €1.5bn in completed buybacks. The dividend for 2025 stood at €1.10 per share, and analysts see it climbing to €1.51 for 2026. Barclays retains an “Overweight” rating with a €42 price target, well above the current market price.

That price, €36.73 at Tuesday’s close, sits just below the six-month high of €37.37 hit a day earlier. The stock has advanced 35.59% over the past twelve months but only 0.60% year-to-date — reflecting the heavy uncertainty that has kept gains in check. Average analyst targets hover near €39.63, but the technical picture is flashing caution: the relative strength index stands at 79.6, deep in overbought territory, while implied volatility runs at 33.57%, a level that favours derivative strategies like the swaps UniCredit employs.

The divergent signals — record earnings and a confident management team versus a creeping stake and an overbought chart — underscore how binary the outcome remains. Orlopp’s “Momentum” strategy has delivered, but the ultimate direction of the stock may be decided not by quarterly results but by what happens before the 3 July deadline. Until then, Commerzbank will have to navigate both a determined suitor and a market that has priced the stock for a decision that has yet to come.