Commerzbank Shares Tiptoe Toward Decade High Amid Takeover Tussle and Visa Migration

Commerzbank shares approach 10-year peak as UniCredit's contested tender offer pushes stake near 50% and the bank moves retail customers from Mastercard to Visa.

Commerzbank stock is brushing up against levels not seen in more than ten years, wrapped in two distinct corporate dramas: a bitter takeover battle with UniCredit and a quiet, forced migration of thousands of retail credit cards from Mastercard to Visa. The share price closed Friday at €38.67, just 0.46% below the 52?week high of €38.85 set on 19 June, leaving the bank’s market capitalisation at €41.56bn.

The takeover front escalated sharply over the weekend. UniCredit reported that 17.6% of Commerzbank shares had been tendered into its exchange offer by the 3 July deadline, a figure the Frankfurt management immediately challenged. After reviewing custody data and shareholder records, Commerzbank asserted that fewer than 2% of those tendered shares came from independent institutional or retail investors. The bank officially suspects that stock?lending arrangements — largely with institutions closely linked to UniCredit — artificially inflated the acceptance rate. The Italian lender’s broader stake, including direct holdings, tendered shares and derivatives exposure, now sits between 47% and just under 50% of voting rights. Whether that crosses the 50% threshold depends on clearance from the European Central Bank and EU competition authorities, decisions that will set the tone for the trading week ahead.

Separately, Commerzbank is executing a less visible but operationally significant shift in its retail business. The bank has begun writing to thousands of private customers holding a Mastercard Classic, asking them to consent to an early switch to a Visa Classic. The letters are blunt: customers who do not respond risk having their card cancelled at its expiry date. The transition stems from a strategic partnership with Visa announced in February 2025, and the roll?out is happening in tranches. Those who want to keep a Mastercard can do so only in a premium account, which costs €12.90 a month instead of the standard €4.90 — nearly triple the price. For most customers, the change will have little practical effect: both networks are accepted in over 200 countries, and the issuing bank still sets fees, benefits and credit limits.

On the price chart, the stock’s technical position reinforces its bullish narrative. Friday’s close of €38.67 represents a 1.66% weekly gain and a 5.20% advance over 30 days. Over the past twelve months, the share price has surged 33.34%, recovering from a 52?week low of €28.08 recorded on 18 July 2025. The 50?day moving average sits at €36.89 and the 200?day average at €34.40, both well below the current level. The relative strength index of 61.7 points to solid buying pressure without overextension.

The immediate resistance remains the decade?high of €38.85; a sustained break above that level would open the path for further gains. On the downside, the €37.00 zone offers the first support. Investors are now watching for two key catalysts: an ECB verdict on UniCredit’s growing influence and Commerzbank’s second?quarter earnings, due in the coming weeks. Chief executive Bettina Orlopp continues to push the “Momentum 2030” strategy, targeting a net profit of at least €3.4bn for 2026 and a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% — both factors that help anchor the stock while the corporate?control drama plays out.