Commerzbank Shares Rally on Strong Earnings, but Governance Storm and Fresh Job Cuts Escalate UniCredit Tussle

Commerzbank shares hit DAX high as MACD triggers sell signal; governance scandal, UniCredit bid, and aggressive cost-cutting plan shape near-term outlook.

Commerzbank’s stock climbed 2.6% to €37.11 on Monday, making it one of the best performers in a DAX that breached the 25,000-point threshold. Yet the advance arrived on the same day the MACD indicator flashed a short signal – a technical contradiction that has put short-term traders on alert. The rally reflects broader inflows into blue chips, but beneath the surface the lender is grappling with a governance crisis, deepening cost-cutting and a hostile takeover bid that refuses to go away.

On the governance front, the board has penalised former chief executive Manfred Knof by slashing his variable compensation for 2024 by 30%. The reason: a secret meeting with UniCredit boss Andrea Orcel at Knof’s home in September 2024, shortly after the Italian bank revealed its stakebuilding in Commerzbank. The supervisory board, led by Jens Weidmann, concluded that Knof breached his duty by failing to inform the management board about the encounter. Knof later claimed Orcel arrived unannounced and that the discussion yielded no material insight, but the damage was done. The penalty is limited to the year in which the violation occurred, as German rules restrict retrospective adjustments.

The incident has fed into a broader power struggle with UniCredit, which now holds nearly 30% of Commerzbank’s shares plus additional financial instruments and has launched a tender offer for the remainder. At the annual general meeting in Wiesbaden, shareholders delivered a resounding vote of confidence in the current leadership: discharge for the management board passed with 99.58% to 99.64% approval, while the compensation report received 91.28% support. The board has publicly dismissed UniCredit’s bid, arguing that the offer price of €34.56 per share – as calculated by the bank in mid-May – is inadequate and that the strategic rationale is unconvincing. The stock’s Friday close of €36.16 reinforces that position, leaving the offer underwater.

Underpinning the share price is a strong set of first-quarter results. Operating profit rose 11% year-on-year to €1.4 billion, while net income climbed 9% to €913 million. Net interest income held steady at €2 billion despite lower benchmark rates, and fee income expanded to €1.1 billion. The cost-income ratio improved to 53%, reflecting disciplined expense management.

The bank’s counter-offensive is the “Momentum 2030” plan, which targets a 21% return on equity and net income of €5.9 billion by the end of the decade. A centrepiece is a cumulative €600 million investment in artificial intelligence between 2026 and 2030, expected to generate annual contributions of roughly €500 million from 2030 onward and free up about 10% of capacity. To accelerate efficiency, the bank announced an additional 3,000 full-time job cuts across the group, on top of the 3,900 reductions already flagged in February 2025.

From a technical standpoint, the rally has pushed the stock into overbought territory. The relative strength index stands at 79.6, and the share price is 10.5% above its 200-day moving average. It now sits just 1.7% below the 52-week high of €37.75. The MACD sell signal, though often overridden in a strong market, has added a note of caution for momentum-driven investors.

Despite the bullish tone, the UniCredit offer has drawn negligible interest. As of 19 May, only 0.02% of Commerzbank shares had been tendered. The extended acceptance period now runs until 3 July 2026, with UniCredit itself not expecting regulatory clearance until 2027. The combination of robust earnings, shareholder backing and a credible independence strategy has stiffened Commerzbank’s resolve – but with the MACD warning flashing and the stock nearing its peak, the next few sessions may test whether the rally can hold its ground.